Tropical Cyclogenesis and Ecoinformatics Methods - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 616

Fig. 7.23 The OAS instability indicator calculated on the data of weather stations NDBC-SPGF1,
41010 and 41008 during August/September, 2011

distance from tropical cyclone location. After the calculation of IT(φ, T ( , t), the

sequential algorithm predicted the OAS phase transition from tropical storm to
hurricane of category 1 and category 3 with probabilities 0.86 and 0.91 for 19 and
27 h, respectively. Furthermore, the calculation of IT(φ, T (

ˆ , ʻ

, t) for each weather
station of the TAO/TRITON/PIRATA/RAMA system will give the possibility to
localize the disturbance process in the OAS of the given region and to start the
monitoring procedure with the calculation of matrix A with corresponding control
of the environment on the area

ˆ , ʻ

.
In the following, let us consider the period during August of 2012 at the Miami
region taking into consideration the western and eastern areas of the coastal waters.
Table 7.9 gives an example of two matrices A that are calculated using of the data
obtained from separate weather stations that are located in this region. It was found
that in August 20 the OAS phase state was practically identical with variations no
more than 9 %. But at August 26, the OAS instability level varied by more than
45 %. It reveals that the area

Ω

Ω broke up to two areas —Ω 1 : eastern zone of Gulf of

Mexico and Ω 2 : eastern coastal zone of Florida Peninsula (Fig. 7.24 ).

Table 7.9 An example of calculations using Eq. ( 7.3 )
Time August 20, 2012 August 26, 2012

NDBC
Station

APCF1 APXF1 41008 SPGF1 42013 APCF1 APXF1 41008 SPGF1 42013

APCF1 1 0.87 1.01 0.76 0.64 1 1.07 0.03 0.18 0.79

APXF1 0.99 1 0.77 0.82 1.18 0.93 1 0.12 0.09 1.24

41008 1.1 1.3 1 1.29 0.93 33.33 8.33 1 0.96 7.68

SPGF1 1.32 1.22 0.78 1 0.89 5.56 11.11 1.04 1 9.14

42013 1.56 0.85 1.08 1.12 1 1.27 0.81 0.13 0.11 1