Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
The region of the sharp increase in the derivative of I m (t) corresponds to the
ocean-atmosphere system phase transition. Consequently, tracing for the meteoro-
logical situation and synchronous calculation of the instability indicator under its
comparison with cluster space structure gives a possibility to detect the moment of
the ocean-atmosphere system transition from background state to the hurricane
origin. Figure 7.17 shows that introduced instability indicator could detect the start
of hurricane Katrina at least 31 h before its detection by satellite. Figure 7.18 shows
I m (t) within the 2005 hurricane season. The behavior of the I m (t) is identical to the
registered hurricane series. Such a result is justi
ed by the results given in Fig. 7.19
for the case of tropical hurricane Flossie that formed in the eastern sector of the
Paci
c Ocean on 8 August and reached Hawaii on 15 August 2007. One can see
that the probabilities of the ocean-atmosphere system transition between its phase
positions are more than 0.7. Results of Figs. 7.20 and 7.21 again corroborate the
indicator information capability. Therefore the indicator I m (t)re
ects the ocean-
atmosphere system phase structure with high reliability and can be used to predict
the beginning of a hurricane.
Figure 7.22 depicts the results obtained from the calculation of the instability
indicator for the two cases of the hurricanes Isaac and Katrina. The data used were
derived from two NDBC weather stations during August
fl
September of 2012 and
for one NDBC weather station during August of 2005. In Fig. 7.22 the OAS
instability level for different distances between station and cyclone is presented.
-
Fig. 7.19 Dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system instability indicator for the case of tropical
hurricane Flossie which occurred on 8
15 August 2007. Data from meteorological station
-
No. 51,003 (19
°
22
N, 160
°
82
) were used to assess the I m (t)(m = 17) as well as s = 17, m =24h,
N =7,K = 30 days
Search WWH ::




Custom Search