Tropical Cyclogenesis and Ecoinformatics Methods - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 612

(1) the region of background characteristics when the ocean-atmosphere system
parameter variations during a restricted time interval is changed in the limits of
statistical stability;
(2) the region of the uncertainty, where the probability of the beginning of a
hurricane exceeds the level 0.5; and
(3) the region of the existence of the hurricane where the velocity of changes of all
parameters {x i } achieve maximal values.
The control of the I m (t) dynamics in the case of Fig. 7.14 with the sequential
analysis shows that in the zone

1

N

2 E(

ʽ ) = 17, D( ʽ ) 0andW c (x) 0. At this

→ →

3
2 E(

time, in the zone N ʽ ) = 9, D( ʽ ) → 5, x = ʽ /D( ʽ ) → 1.35, c → 16 and

W 16 (1.35) 0.912. The latter explains the result represented in Fig. 7.18 . In other

words, processing from verbal reasoning to a quantitative estimation of the
I m (t) dynamics, we introduce a generalized calibrated scale

→

ʞ , for which we pos-

tulate the presence of relationships of the type ʞ 1 < ʞ 2 , ʞ 1 > ʞ 2 or ʞ 1 = ʞ 2 . It means

that there always exists a value of I m (t)= which determines when the ocean-

atmosphere system phase transition of a given type can be expected. As a result, the
magnitude

ˁ

h ¼ I m ðÞq

j j determines the expected time interval before the phase

transition occurs.

Fig. 7.18 Dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system instability indicator calculated for the 2005
tropical hurricane season based on data from meteorological station No. SMKF1 (24 ° 37 ′ 36 ″ N,

81 ° 06 ′ 36 ″ W). Parameters of I m (k) are s = 17, m =24h,N =7,K = 123 days