Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 1.5 (continued)
Stage
Performed tasks
4. Elaboration of the algorithm for the
management of decision making under the
selection of measurement strategy or
modernization of the typical model of the
regional water balance
Choice of scale and criterion for assessment
of discrepancy between observational data
and modeling results
Determination of decision making
procedure concerning the monitoring
regime or hydrological model correction
depending on the results of comparison of
forecasting results with observational data
Document preparation for the regulation of
the RIMS-B user operations in the case
when the system detects the onset of a
dangerous environmental event (
fl
(flood, soil
over-moistening, leakage etc.)
5. Determination of the reporting forms about
the results obtained from the RIMS-B
functioning
Choice of the reporting forms that provide the
requirements of services to make a decision
concerning the realization of actions about
the management of the hydrological system
and/or defense of the population
Computer implementation of the selected
reporting forms that fulfill the informational
requirements of various services
6. Formulation of synoptic scenarios
Establishment of the instruction about the
interaction of RIMS-B operator with the
regional and national meteorological
services
Synthesis of typical synoptic scenarios for
separate regions of Bulgaria based on the
study of the existing global and European
climate change scenarios, as key elements
of RIMS-B which will be used in regime
“
by default
”
Analysis of climatic trends in the Bulgarian
territory and elaboration of forecasts in
evolution of these trends
Synthesis of an evolutionary model for
synoptic trend towards an early distortion of
the regional synoptic situation using the
available meteorological information
1.4 The Evolutionary Modeling as an Item
of the Information-Modeling Technology
1.4.1 The Evolutionary Modeling Technology
The composition of an intelligent support subsystem of the GIMS is based on
methods that simulate evolution processes (Bukatova 1992; Bukatova and
Makrusev 2003; Bukatova et al. 1991; Gulyaev et al. 1987, 1989, 2009; Norris and
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