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parameters, that depict the in
uence of energy exchange between the sub-systems of
the OAS, such as the water surface temperature, wind speed, total water vapor content
in the atmosphere, integral content of liquid water in clouds, as well as the vertical
turbulent
fl
fields of
the ocean. The satellite observations can also give indirect information about the
processes in the ocean column from its bottom, which are invisible for means of direct
remote sensing (Fedorov and Ginsburg 1988).
The goal of many studies is to develop technologies of diagnostics of the tropical
hurricane origin in ocean zones, which are regular sources of the hurricane gen-
eration on the basis of the passive microwave radiometric observations conducted
by satellites, vessels, buoys and mathematical modeling data of the OAS behavior
at different stages, notably (Krapivin 2010; Kondratyev et al. 2006a, b; Krapivin
and Shutko 2012; Soldatov et al. 2011; Krapivin and Kondratyev 2002):
fl
fluxes of heat, which are especially important in studies of cyclonic
(a)
the stage preceding the tropical hurricane appearance;
(b)
the tropical hurricane appearance; and
(c)
the stage of the OAS relaxation after the tropical hurricane appearance.
Soldatov et al. (2010) have recently proposed a new technology for the OAS
diagnostics based on the calculation of the instability indicator. The solution to the
problem related to the investigation of indicator-precursor for the tropical hurricane
origin is associated with the assessment of the OAS state and with the peculiar
states of the system at the time of the commencement of its phase transition. Basic
phases of the OAS are determined by the Saf
r-Simpson scale which classi
es
hurricanes into
five categories according to their intensity (
http://www.nhc.noaa.
It has long been recognized that the environmental changes that are associated
with the OAS evolution, have all stochastic character (Abu-Zaid and Ahmadi 1989;
Mees et al. 1997), as numerous other natural catastrophes that are distinguished
between them only by the environmental parameters that affect their start (Calla-
ghan and Power 2011). In connection to this, the indicator-precursors may be
investigated only by means of the analytical relationships that describes the func-
tioning of the global climate system. An illustrative example is the employment of
the conventional Boolean algebra algorithm and baroclinic models for the fore-
casting of the tropical cyclone motion (Kondratyev and Krapivin 2005a, b, 2006;
Tang et al. 2005; Zhou and Chen 2006).
7.2 Ocean-Atmosphere System Phases
Understanding the ocean-atmosphere interaction is critical for predicting changes in
global temperature patterns and climate variability with global warming as well as
the prediction of beginning the tropical cyclones. Ocean-atmosphere coupling is a
concept of climate dynamics essential for understanding a large number of climate
phenomena including the El Ni
ñ
o
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate
-
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