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Fig. 6.26 Forecasting of the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere obtained under different
anthropogenic scenarios: 1 Keeling and Bacastow pessimistic scenario; 2 Bjorkstrom optimistic
scenario; 3 IPCC scenario; 4 Kondratyev realistic scenario. The ordinate X=C
a
(t)/C
a
(1900)
(4)
the realistic scenario of Kondratyev (1999) foresees the existing tendencies in
the world
'
s energetic, demographic and urbanization processes. This scenario
is realized by the GSM (Krapivin 1993; Kondratyev and Krapivin 2001c, d).
It is obvious that in the framework of the third scenario a greenhouse effect via
CO
2
is problematic. To estimate the dynamic of the atmospheric temperature
dependence on carbon dioxide it is necessary to use a correlation describing the
greenhouse effect. There are many various empirical functional representations of
existing empirical dependence of the atmospheric temperature deviation
T
CO
2
upon the variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide parameter X=C
a
(t)/
C
a
(1900). One of them is:
D
:
911
þ
1
:
509 ln X
1
:
25 exp
0
f
:
82 X
1
ð
Þ
g
when X
1
0
;
D
T
CO
2
¼
¼ 2
:
63X
2
þ
6
:
27X
þ
1
:
509 ln X
3
:
988 when X
1
\
Finally, according to the GSM calculations, future emissions of CO
2
will commit
Earth to a warm-up by 0.2
T
CO
2
depend upon the
assumptions about the intensity of the urbanization process and about land-use
strategy. The calculation results show that the dynamics of industrial CO
2
distri-
bution between the atmosphere and oceans changes with the increasing prepon-
derance of
-
1.3
°
C. These variations in
D
ows H
3
in the northern water areas. At the end of the 21st century and
beginning of the 22nd century, during the highest pressure of human economic
activity, the contribution of the oceans to industrial CO
2
absorption will be con-
siderably lower than that of vegetation. This is due to the fact that, with an increase
in CO
2
concentration in the atmosphere, the partial pressure in the oceans rises and
its ability to absorb industrial CO
2
decreases, whereas the productivity of vegetation
does not fall. By the end of the 22nd century, with a projected decrease in human
impact, the contribution of the oceans increases due to the growing role of its deep
fl
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