The Arctic Environmental Problems - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 576

distributions for the arctic seas. For instance, the Norwegian Sea and Bering Sea
have CO 2 de cits of 18 54 and 33 69 ppm, respectively. The average CO 2 de cit

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reaches 450 gC m − 2 . The ow H 3 changes between 1.5 and 4.1 gC m − 2 day − 1 .In

addition, linear correlations between the partial pressure of CO 2 and the water
temperature T are observed, with a proportionality coef

fl

C.
The problem of the greenhouse effect is discussed by many authors within the
framework of different anthropogenic scenarios. The main conclusion is that global
climate change brought about through CO 2 dynamics, will be insigni

cient equal to 9.8 ppm/ °

cant during

next century if:

(1) the World Ocean pollution, especially by oil products, does not exceed the
level of 1990 by 10 %;
(2) agricultural land areas do not expand at the expense of forests;
(3) the rate of fossil fuel consumption remains at the level of 1990 with a dis-
persion of 15 %; and
(4) alternative energy sources (atomic, wind, etc.) are developed at a rate which
does not hinder the food production.

The role of soil-plant formation for the absorption of excess atmospheric carbon
dioxide under the above scenario is estimated with the data displayed in a geo-
graphic grid of 4

°× °

lat/long (Fig. 6.9 and Table 6.2 ). The role of the World
Ocean is considered by taking into account the water temperature in the surface
layer. It has been shown that the atmospheric CO 2 concentration can reach a mixing
level of 556.7 ppm during the 21st century. The dynamics of industrial CO 2 dis-
tribution between the atmosphere, oceans and vegetation will

5

fluctuate with an
amplitude less than 25 %. With an increase in industrial CO 2 emission over the
period from 1990 to 2090, the atmospheric portion will rise and the contribution of
the oceans to its absorption will increase; whereas that of the biota will stabilize
after going through a small maximum. At the end of the 21st century and beginning
of the 22nd century, during the highest level of human economic activity, the
contribution of the oceans (especially the Arctic Basin) to industrial CO 2 absorption
will be considerably higher than that of vegetation. This is due to the fact that, with
an increase in CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, the ability of the upper ocean
layers to absorb industrial CO 2 will be supported by the transformation of bio-
geochemical processes in the deep ocean layers. The restoration of plant cover and
ocean pollution are the main short-time problems (Watson et al. 2000). For
example, it was shown that if the natural/disturbed land relation will change from 2/
3 in 1990 to 3/2 in 2050 then the atmospheric CO 2 concentration would reach no
more 497.3 ppm during the 21st century. This illustrates that the role of the bio-
spheric system in global change needs to be investigated more thoroughly
(Table 6.23 ).
Simulation results show that there is an overall exaggeration of the importance of
the problem of global climate change caused by anthropogenic CO 2 emissions.
Thus, the existing arguments for climate change are not reliable. It is necessary to
develop the GSM by inserting new correlations between the elements of the NSS
and taking into account the biotic regulation processes.

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