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Table 6.19 Potential long-term ecological trends due to climate warming (UNIT TWO 2008)
Characteristic
Phytoplankton
Zooplankton
Fish
Mammals and seabirds
Distribution
Increased spatial
extent of areas of
high primary pro-
duction in the cen-
tral Arctic Ocean
Southern limit of distribution
for colder water species to
move northward. Distribution
of more southerly species to
move northward
Southern limit of distribution for
colder water species to move
northward. Distribution of more
southerly species to move north-
ward. Timing and location of
spawning and feeding migrations to
alter
Species distributions shift north-
wards towards the pole
Production
Increased produc-
tion in central Arc-
tic Ocean, and
Barents and Bering
Sea shelves
Dif
cult to predict, will depend
on the timing of phytoplankton
production and sea
temperatures
Wind-driven movement patterns of
larvae may be critical as well as a
match/mismatch in the timing of
zooplankton production and
sh
larval production
Dramatic declines in production by
ice-associated marine mammals and
increases by more temperate spe-
cies. Seabird production likely to be
primarily affected through food
availability, which is unpredictable
Species com-
position/
diversity
Dependent on mix-
ing depth. Different
depths favor differ-
ent types of
phytoplankton
Adaptable arctic copepods,
such as Calanus glacialis, may
be favored
Cod, herring, walleye pollock, and
some
Declines in polar bear, and in
ringed, harp, hooded, spotted, rib-
bon, and possibly bearded seals.
Increased distribution of harbor
seals and grey seals. Possible
declines in bowhead, narwhal, grey,
and beluga whales. Ivory gulls and
several small auk species are likely
to decline; other changes in bird
populations are unpredictable
at
sh are likely to move
northward and become more abun-
dant, while capelin, polar cod, and
Greenland halibut will have a
restricted range and decline in
abundance
fl
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