The Arctic Environmental Problems - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 537

This investigation shows that the simulation experiment provides the possibility
of studying both the common and spatial distributions of the pollutant dynamics in
the Arctic Basin. The precision of the results is a function both of the scenarios and
the forms of the parameterization of the elements in Eqs. ( 6.1 )

( 6.16 ). It is obvious
that the SSMAE is not effective when the climate conditions are varied to a critical
state or when the anthropogenic impacts are increased to a critical value. But in the
SSMAE the Arctic Basin acts as a stabilizing subsystem of the biosphere. When the
atmospheric temperature is reduced by

-

C, there occurs an inverse connection in
the water balance of the atmosphere-land-sea system, which acts to stabilize the
estimates. The parameterization of such variations in the framework of the SSMAE
is not convenient. Nevertheless, the connection of the SSMAE to a global database
having estimates of such parameters as ice area, temperature and albedo distribu-
tions, will allow the use of the SSMAE in the present form. The effectiveness of the
SSMAE will increase with the use of models such as the coupled ice-ocean model
described in the paper of Riedlinger and Preller (1991). In general, many different
modi

− 1 °

cations of the SSMAE are possible. But, it is obvious that movement to the
optimal SSMAE structure demands greater accuracy of pollutant types, ecosystem
structure, water cycle, ice movement and climate model. The main dif

culty is to

realize the optimal modi cation at the same time for each of the blocks of the

SSMAE.
The pollution level of the Arctic Basin is formed mainly by the river flows.
Because of this, the block MRFAB plays a very important role in the SSMAE.
Regular monitoring of the water flows and pollutant inputs by the rivers to the

SSMAE is impossible. Consequently, the study and measurement of these

fl

fl ows

during scienti c expeditions and the modeling of the results are signi cant steps in

the investigation of the Arctic Basin pollution.
One example of such a step is the U.S./Russian expedition of 1995 to obtain on-
site measurements of the pollution levels in the Yenisey and its tributary the
Angara, in order to investigate the likely origins of land-based sources contributing
to the pollution levels in the Yenisey estuary.
The problem of veri cation of the SSMAE is important. However, it will be

possible to realize this after essential modi cations to the SSMAE, using models of

greater precision to account for the hydrological, biogeochemical, ecological and
climatic processes. The present SSMAE structure leads to a new technology of
Arctic Basin pollution monitoring. Greater, or at least better, accuracy in the
SSMAE may be realized by means of simulation experiments where the model
parameters are varied over wide intervals. That is beyond the scope of this chapter.
We draw attention to several results of this investigation. In the framework of the
nuclear war scenario, for example, the SSMAE shows that the Arctic environmental
stability is disturbed 3 months after the impact. From other scenarios, it follows that
variations in the velocity of vertical advection from 0.004 to 0.05 cm/s does not
affect the Arctic environmental state. An error by 32 % in the ice area estimate leads
to a variation of the simulation results by 36 %. When this error is more than 32 %,
the simulation results become less stable and can vary by several times. The
problem lies in finding the proper criterion to estimate the SSMAE sensitivity to