Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
How will average
fl
flows in rivers change with greenhouse warming? How will
these
flows change over seasons? Will the probabilities of catastrophic events
change?
fl
What values do people assign to the changes in ecosystems by climate change?
Which changes are important and which are minor? Can a value be assigned to
non-use?
How much should society be willing to pay to reduce the probability of losing
speci
c species? If different scenarios favor different species, how should
society trade between these outcomes?
What impact do ecosystem changes have upon the economy? For example, how
will climate change affect grazing, commercial
fishing, timber, or commercial
tourism?
It has been suggested that priority program areas and relevant projects are as
follows:
(a)
Impacts of global changes on the arctic region and its people.
Regional cumulative impacts.
Effects of increased UV radiation.
(b) Arctic processes of relevance to global systems.
Mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets.
Terrestrial ecosystems and feedback on climate change.
(c) Natural processes within the Arctic.
Arctic marine/coastal/riverine systems.
Disturbance and recovery of terrestrial ecosystems.
(d) Sustainable development in the Arctic.
Sustainable use of living resources
Dynamics of arctic populations and ecosystems
Environmental and social impacts of industrial development.
Future priorities of
the ARCSS include the following research questions
(ARCUS 1998):
How will the Arctic climate change over the next 50
100 years?
-
How will human activities interact with future global change to affect the sus-
tainability of natural ecosystems and human societies?
How will changes in arctic biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks affect arctic
and global systems?
How will changes in arctic hydrological cycles and feedbacks affect arctic and
global systems? Are predicted changes in the Arctic detectable?
Important perspectives are connected with paleo-environmental studies by the
Paleo-environmental Arctic Sciences (PARCS) community (PARCS 2000) which
have a principal aim of answering the question: how much do recent observations
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