Ecoinformatics Problems of Global Climate Change - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 430

5.5 Climate, Energetics and Global Urbanization

5.5.1 Climate and Civilization

Cities are one of the most substantial and evident phenomena of the present civi-
lization development. Despite an apparent controversy of their development, for
most of the planetary population they are a symbol of progress. But nevertheless,
“ ”

. This opinion of the
outstanding French architect and town-builder Le Corbusie (1977), voiced as far
back as 1925, is valid even now. One of the major causes of this assessment is an
unfavourable ecological situation, and another one is a continuous growth of the
urban population. During the next 20 years most of the population in developing
countries will live in cities. This fact, like the problems of large cities, attracts
serious attention of many investigators (Grigoryev and Kondratyev 2004; Bulkeley
and Betsill 2003; Kondratyev et al. 2006a).
The main feature at the turn of the 20th century is the continuing growth of
megalopolises. If in 1970 the urban population constituted 35 % of the planetary
population, in 2000 it was already almost 50 %. It was supposed that by the year 2023
more than 3.3 billion people will live in cities. The prevailing contribution (90 %) is
made by the cities of developing countries (Grigoryev and Kondratyev 2004).
Forecasts of urbanization development for the nearest 30 years show that from
the viewpoint of population location, cities head the list. In 2030, the size of the
urban population can reach 60 % of the global population.
Serious progress in many spheres of vital activity, which is connected with the
growth of cities, is accompanied by heavy negative consequences. They are rather
diverse and connected, in particular, with the poverty of many city-dwellers, low
level of health, high mortality, environmental degradation, as well as shortcomings
in the infrastructure and development of the municipal services. Of these problems,
the most important is the environmental situation and lack of readiness of infra-
structures to protect population against natural disasters. That

cities do not deserve their epoch, they are not worthy of us

'

s the initial cause of

'

other numerous negative aspects of the urban life ( health

and poverty). This hinders the progressive positive development of cities. Of
course, speci

(first of all, city-dwellers

c features of urbanization in the regions of different continents differ
drastically. The highest level of urbanization is observed in the countries of North
America (77.2 %), Latin America (75.3 %); and Europe (74.8 %). In other regions
these indicators are as follows: Oceania and Australia

— 70.2 %, Asia — 36.7 %, and

Africa — 37.9 %. This statistics is quite natural and re fl ects the difference of the

countries by the level of industrial development.
For individual countries, the urbanization phenomenon is characterized by the
following indicators: Belgium — 97.3 %, Iceland — 92.5 %, Uruguay — 91.3 %,

Great Britain — 89.5 %, the Netherlands — 89.4 %, Germany — 87.5 %, Venezuela —

86.6 %, Argentina — 85.9 %, Chili — 85.7 %, Denmark — 85.3 %, Sweden — 83.3 %,

Brazil — 81.3 %. Analysis of these and other indicators of urbanization shows that