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(3) comparative estimates of possible risks; and
(4) analysis of the achieved scienti
c progress.
During the last several decades, two approaches prevailed in developments of IA
models:
(1) use of assessments obtained by interdisciplinary groups of experts; and
(2)
formal numerical modeling.
The former approach is characteristic of IPCC efforts and developments within
the Montreal Protocol, whereas the latter approach was realized by individual
specialists. The emphasis was placed on the use of IA models to analyze possible
impacts of climate change on the development of energy and economy in the
context of the problem of CO
2
emissions to the atmosphere.
The general assessment of the results obtained consists in that the IA models
cannot be used to substantiate the highly specialized measures in view of the
insuf
ciently detailed character of such models. However, the use of such models is
important for assessment of possible uncertainties and, hence, expediency of
making any decisions. In this case, it is important that considerable uncertainties
concerning the system on the whole or recommendations on the needed ecological
policy, can turn out to be not those uncertainties that are most important for
understanding the processes responsible for understanding changes taking place in
the environment or characterized by most substantial variability.
Considering the data for concrete models, it is possible to range uncertainties by
their signi
c character of the models.
Although the use of IA models has made it possible to substantiate some correla-
tions of dynamics of the socio-economic development and variability of the envi-
ronment, the relevant results should be considered only preliminary. So far, the use
of IA models has made only a small contribution to estimation of comparative risks
and to obtaining the answer to the fundamental question, to what degree and in
which respects a possible climate change is most substantial.
In view of these circumstances, the results of the use of IAmodels to substantiate an
adequate ecological policy have been, so far, rather limited, and this refers especially to
purely didactic estimates based on the use of simple models. The main problems of the
IA models
cance, but this ranging depends on speci
cient understanding of probable
impacts and possibilities of adaptation; poorly substantiated or absent at all descrip-
tions of social and behavioural processes in developing countries; very limited ideas of
a scarcely probable, but radical climate change. Despite these and other unresolved
problems, the urgency of further efforts in development of IA models is obvious.
In conclusion, again, it is emphasized that an improvement of the global
observation system is of great importance. The urgency of this problem has been
illustrated in Demirchian et al. (2002) where the complicated spatial-temporal SAT
variability in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has been demonstrated, as
well as the groundlessness of the
'
improvement include: overcoming insuf
“
”
warming conception, according to
which under conditions of the Arctic the effect of the growth of GHGs concen-
tration should manifest itself especially strongly.
greenhouse
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