Ecoinformatics Problems of Global Climate Change - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 426

modeling, it is important to use culty of

an adequate consideration of a complicated totality of interactive processes and
spatial-temporal scales. In this context, the use of paleoclimatic data plays a sub-
stantial role, though they cannot be analogs to a possible climate change in the
future.
A serious anxiety has been caused by inadequacy of global observation systems
and degradation of ground observations, especially manifesting themselves in some
cases. Mahlman (1998) emphasized that the controversy of the problem of
anthropogenic climate change consists in the absence of reliable quantitative esti-
mates of relationship between the contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors
of changes. This circumstance creates serious dif

“ tuning ” and adjustment because of the dif

culties in practical realization of
recommendations contained in the Kyoto Protocol.
Such conclusions, discussed in detail before, have received universal recogni-
tion, illustrated by the recent review of Grassl (2000). In this context, quite sur-
prising is the wide use of the term

“ climate change ” as determining only the

anthropogenic change. The substitution of the notion of “ climate change ” (in its

true meaning) with the term is also incorrect, since both

observational data and the results of numerical modeling indicate a highly inho-
mogeneous present climate change, far from being reduced to only SAT increase.
Such terminological misunderstanding is not accidental, however. It is aimed at
disinformation for the sake of establishing a false conception of anthropogenic
(

“ global warming ”

) global warming, which has been convincingly explained by
Boehmer-Christiansen (1997, 2000), who analyzed the political motivation of this
concept. Cracknell (2009) continues of discussion about global warming.
In August 1997, the U.S. Minister of geology V. Babbitt, addressing about 3,000
participants of the annual Congress of the U.S. Ecological Society, said that they
should implement their civil obligation

“ greenhouse ”

help to convince skeptical American public
that global warming is both real and dangerous:

—

“ We have a scienti c consensus but

we have not a public consensus ” . In this connection, Morris (1997) carried out an

overview of available scienti c information in order to analyze the grounds for this

opinion, since many specialists do not share the apocalyptic predictions of anthro-
pogenic global warming. The emphasis in the overview has been placed on the
problem of distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic climate change.
In the mid-1970s the forecasts of global cooling due to sulphate aerosol pre-
dicted, for instance, that this impact will limit an increase of global mean tem-
perature due to enhanced greenhouse effect of the atmosphere by less than 2

C
even with a 8-fold increase of CO 2 concentration. The warming trend observed in
the 1980s has attracted attention to the problem of climate warming. At the height
of the summer of 1988, (Hansen et al. 1988; Hansen 1998) declared at the U.S.
Congress a 99 % probability of anthropogenic global warming and its destructive
consequences for the ecosystems in the future, as well as a consensus reached
among specialists on this problem, though many meteorologists and climatologists
did not share those views: respective developments did not permit to establish
reliable cause-and-effect relationships between anthropogenic GHGs emissions and
observed the climate change.

°