Ecoinformatics Problems of Global Climate Change - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 417

“ greenhouse ” RF due to the growth of CO 2 concentration in the period from the

beginning of the industrial revolution to nowadays was estimated at about

1.5 W m − 2 ).
In connection with these circumstances, Hansen et al. (1998, 1999) obtained new
estimates of global mean RF. The data in Table 5.10 characterize the results of
analytical approximation (with an error of about 10 %) of various components of the
“ RF (the recent detection of SF 5 CF 3 as a substantial GHG shows that

the problem of substantiation of GHG priority cannot be considered resolved
completely). The GHG concentrations are expressed in ppm (CO 2 , c); ppb (CH 4 , m);
ppb (CFC-11, x; CFC-12, y); CFC

greenhouse ”

— chloro fl uoroorganic compounds (freons). The

0.25 W m − 2 . The fact that the rate of RF increased from 0.01
to 0.04 W m − 2 per year over the period 1950

total RF value is 2.3 ±

1970, during subsequent 20 years
decreased down to 0.03 Wm − 2 per year, in connection with the decreasing rate of the
growth of CO 2 concentration (despite the continuing growth of CO 2 emissions), is of
great interest, although the reasons remaining unclear. A certain contribution was
made also by the reduction of the growth of CO 2 concentration, but also for
unknown reasons.
The RF due to the growing concentration of tropospheric ozone was estimated at
0.4

-

0.15 W m − 2 . A drop of stratospheric ozone could result in the RF equal to

±

0.1 W m − 2 . Although these changes of the sign are mutually partly com-
pensated, it does not mean their insignificance, since variations of the ozone content
in the troposphere and stratosphere affect substantially and in a different way the
formation of the vertical pro

− ±

0.2

le of temperature.
As for the RF due to aerosol, its determination is still unreliable for lack of
adequate information on the real atmospheric aerosol. A numerical modeling, with
anthropogenic sulphate, organic, and soil aerosol taken into account (with a latent
consideration of soot aerosol by prescribed realistic aerosol absorption), for pre-
scribed global distributions of aerosol optical thickness has made it possible to
evaluate the global distributions of RF and balanced surface temperature, and then
to obtain respective global mean values of changes of RF ( ʔ F) and surface tem-

perature ( ʔ T s ) for purely scattering aerosol (single scattering albedo ˉ = 1) and

more realistic aerosol (Table 5.11 ).

Table 5.10 Greenhouse radiative forcing F over the period after the beginning of industrial
revolution (Kondratyev et al. 2006b)
Gas Radiative forcing

F = f(c) − f(c 0 ), where f(c) = 5.04 lg(c + 0.0005c 2 )

CO 2

0.04(m 1/2 m 1/2 ) g(m 0 ,n 0 )]; g(m, n) = 0.5 lg[1 + 0.00002(mn) 0.75 ] CH 4 − [g(m, n 0 ) −

-

0.04(n 1/2 n 1/2 ) N 2 O − [g(m 0 ,n) − g(m 0 ,n 0 )];

-

CFC-
11

0.25(x - x 0 )

FC-12 0.30(y y 0 )

-