Geoscience Reference
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Ocean basin. The ENSO event favouring the propagation of the sub-tropical anti-
cyclone over the Western Paci
c plays a marked role in stirring up of feedback
mechanisms. Studies of appearing correlations are successfully carried out with the
use of an interactive ensemble CGCM developed at the Centre for Ocean-Land-
Atmosphere Studies (COLA).
A new method to simulate and diagnose the observed climate variability has
been developed by Schneider (2006). A method, which can be used to retrospec-
tively simulate and understand the evolution of surface temperature using reanalysis
surface
fl
fluxes and a coupled GCM, has been developed. The method has two parts:
(1) weather noise surface
uxes by
removing the ensemble mean response of an AGCM ensemble to the observed
surface temperature evolution; and
(2) an interactive ensemble (IE) CGCM (an ensemble of atmospheric models
coupled to a single OGCM) is then forced by this noise.
fl
fluxes are extracted from the reanalysis surface
fl
The IE CGCM will reproduce the observed surface temperature evolution up to
errors in the model, the reanalysis surface
fluxes, and the ocean initial state given
certain conditions. These conditions are that there is no internal ocean
fl
“
weather
”
noise
or coupled instabilities. External forcing must also be taken into account
properly (Schneider et al. 2009; Despres et al. 1986).
In the Paci
c Ocean there are two key regions which play an important role in
variability of the upper water layer temperature. These are western and central
sectors of the northern Paci
c Ocean. Changes taking place here affect the climatic
situation in many regions of Asia and in more remote areas (Nakamura and
Yamagata 1997). Therefore, study of complicated climatic situations in the Paci
c
region is important for detection of latent dependences between stimulators of
global climate change in the future (Timmermann et al. 1999).
The Secretariat of the Paci
c Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) has
been designated by Paci
c heads of government as the lead agency to coordinate
the region
is response to this challenge. Climate change is already disproportion-
ately affecting the islands of the Paci
'
c. Although islanders have done little to
contribute to the cause
—
less than 0.03 % of current global greenhouse gas emis-
sions
first to be affected. Most islands are experiencing cli-
mate change impacts on communities, infrastructure, water supply, coastal and
forest ecosystems,
—
they are among the
fisheries, agriculture, and human health. The consequences of
sea level
cation, altered rainfall
patterns, and overall temperature rise will be increasingly felt (Faletau et al. 2012).
rise, sea temperature increases, ocean acidi
5.4.4 Climate-Forming Factors
Discussing the prospects of developments within the CLIVAR program of study of
climate variability, Bolin (1999) emphasized that
IPCC was very careful in its
assessments in order to stick to conclusions known from scienti
“
c literature, which
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