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such as a climate-forming atmospheric component, is needed, and on the other
hand, there is no doubt that the still highly uncertain data on the global spatial-
temporal variability of aerosol properties and mechanisms of formation do not
permit an adequate parameterization of the aerosol dynamics in climate models,
where the most them predict only a few general trends.
5. Natural disasters.
The problems of risk and natural disasters are of special importance in the
context of analysis of the role of non-linear dynamics of climate system, as a factor
of sudden and strong climate change in reaching certain threshold levels of forcing.
Knutson et al. (2010) discuss the problem concerning the existence of correlation
between climate change and tropical cyclogenesis processes. Unfortunately, the
historical data do not con
rm the presence of such correlation with high reliability.
However, the existing climate models show the presence of globally averaged
increase in the tropical cyclone intensities to 2100 by 2
11 %, under the reduction
-
of their frequency by 6
34 %.
-
6. Solar radiation.
Still neglected in
climate studies, solar radiation is an important
problem of possible impacts of solar activity on climate, via various mechanisms of
formation of positive feedbacks with solar activity-induced changes of the content
of some MGCs in the atmosphere (in particular, nitrogen dioxide) and cloud cover
properties (Douglass et al. 2004). In this connection, the work of Solanki et al.
(2004) deserves attention. They detected a strong anomaly of solar activity during
the last decades, compared to its quieter level during the preceding 11,000 years.
Thus, the main conclusion is that further serious efforts are needed to substan-
tiate a new strategy of global climate studies. However, it is important to remark
that this strategy cannot be realized adequately without more precise account of the
problem of nature-society interaction (Krapivin and Varotsos 2007, 2008).
“
orthodox
”
5.3 Empirical Diagnostics of the Global Climate
5.3.1 Introduction
The main cause of contradictions in studies of the present climate and its changes,
represents the inadequacy of the available observational databases. They remain
incomplete and of poor quality. In this connection, Mohr and Bridge (2003) have
carried out a thorough analysis of evolution of the global observing system. As it is
well known, climate is characterized by many parameters, such as air temperature
and humidity near the Earth surface and in the free atmosphere; precipitation (liquid
or solid); amount of cloud cover and the height of its lower and upper boundaries,
microphysical and optical properties of clouds; radiation budget and its compo-
nents; microphysical and optical parameters of atmospheric aerosols; atmospheric
chemical composition, and more. However, the empirical analysis of climatic data
is usually limited by the results of SAT observations, with data series available for
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