Ecoinformatics Problems of Global Climate Change - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 365

(1) a reduction of emissions will make it possible to avoid in the future a dan-
gerous climate change; and

(2) it is cheaper to reduce emissions and provide softer climate changes than to

adapt to the changed climate.

However, the problem is that neither scientists nor politicians have adequately
studied and estimated the destructions, which can be avoided in accomplishing any
scenario of GHGs emissions reduction, and relative expenditures on adaptation or
softening. This is a very complicated problem and therefore it is most dif cult to

substantiate an adequate strategy.
In this connection, Hulme and Parry (1998) obtained and discussed estimates of
climate change for Great Britain based on the use of four scenarios of GHGs
emissions reduction (only CO 2 has been considered) for the period 1990

2100:
IS92 (uncontrolled increase of emissions without their reduction); KYOTO (a 5.2 %
reduction of emissions by the year 2010 compared to 1990 by the

-

”
countries, that is, industrial countries, with subsequently stabilized emissions (other
countries follow the

“ “first list

“ trajectory ” of IS92); KYOTO+ (after 2010, the “ “first list ”

countries continue to reduce emissions by 1 % per year; for other countries — IS92);

“ ”

KYOTO++ (the same as KYOTO+ for the countries; after 2020, other

countries reduce emissions by 1 % per year). The MINUS-60 scenario of global
CO 2 reduction by 60 % by the year 2010 has been considered, too.
Data in Table 5.2 illustrate the estimates of respective changes (increase) of the
annual mean SAT in Great Britain (in these calculations the impact of atmospheric
aerosol was left out of account). As it is seen, all discussed measures on CO 2
emissions reduction provide only a negligible restraining of climate warming. This
means a necessity to pay a much more serious attention to development of the
strategy of adaptation to climate change.
McBean (1998) emphasized that though in the context of FCCC the emphasis
has been placed on the problem of GHGs emissions reduction, clause 4 of FCCC
foresees also the necessity:

“first list

(1) to support efforts (scienti c, technological, technical, socio-economic) in the

interests of further scienti c developments, systematic observations and cre-

ation of the climate data archive, bearing in mind to get a better understanding
of the causes of climate change and its socio-economic consequences;

Table 5.2 Estimates of the
annual mean temperature
increase in Great Britain with
various scenarios of GHGs
emission reductions
(Spedicato 1991)

Scenario Annual mean temperature

increase ( ° C)

By 2050 By 2100

IS92a 1.39 2.54

KYOTO 1.33 2.39

KYOTO+ 1.29 2.26

KYOTO++ 1.24 1.79

MINUS-60 0.78 0.11