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which can be considered as a further development of the Global Atmospheric
Research Programme (GARP), started in 1967, in accordance with an agreement
between the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and International Council
of Scienti
c Unions (ICSU) (Kondratyev 1992; Haque 2005; Arneth et al. 2002).
One of the goals of the agreement was to study
the physical processes in the
troposphere and stratosphere which are important for understanding the factors that
determine the statistical properties of atmospheric general circulation, which can
lead to a better understanding of the physical bases of climate
“…
”
.
first session of the Joint Committee on GARP planning held in 1967, the
results of the global numerical climate modeling with the use of a 3D model with a
prescribed doubled CO
2
concentration in the atmosphere, have been presented. In
1980, the GARP was transformed into WCRP. Since then, the problem of potential
global climate change due to the GHGs concentration growth has become the
subject of not only science but also politics (Boehmer-Christiansen 1997, 2000;
Zillman 2000; Crowley 2000; Demircian et al. 2002; Frederick 1994). Moreover,
climate problems have always been connected with economics.
The anxiety about a potential global ecological crisis was growing during the last
years. Many investigators (
At a
*
70 %) of climate believe that the
“
emissions trading
”
will not be an ef
cient mean of GHGs emissions reduction, since it is based not on
the real reduction of emissions but on the tactics of economic measures. Therefore,
a possibility of practical accomplishment of KP recommendations to reduce GHGs
emissions, raises doubts. This assessment agrees with the fact that there are con-
siderable differences in assessments of climate change (especially on regional
scales), based on the use of various numerical models (Kerr 2000). The conclusion
that under conditions of the supposed global climate warming the agricultural
productivity in different countries will remain high, is not less important (though in
different regions there will be both
) and thus of key
importance will be an adaptation of agriculture to changing climate (Sirotenko
2000).
Crichton (2005) discussed the problems arisen in modern climatology con-
cerning the survivability of people when global temperature will increase. General
consensus about future trends in global temperature does not exist among experts.
Some say temperatures will increase by 1.5
“
winners
”
and
“
losers
”
°
C over the next century, some say
5
C. Majority of experts tries to solve this problem (Kondratyev 2001, 2002). But
there exist experts who propose to see what happens. As Diamond (2005) points
Crichton
°
is a sure path to dirty air, famine, water
shortages, war, and death. Diamond (2005) examines why certain ancient societies,
such as Easter Islanders and Norse Greenlanders, disappeared, and how many
modern societies are on the same path of destruction due to bad choice made in
response to environmental circumstances.
In accordance with the 1987 UN Resolution on the Environment and Devel-
opment, the ICSU and WMO decided in November 1988 to organize the IPCC.
Representatives of about 30 countries have come to the conclusion about a
necessity not only to analyze the existing ideas of possible anthropogenic climate
change but also to consider its probable impacts on the environment and society as
'
is (2005) strategy of
“
just it out
”
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