Information-Modeling Technology for the Environmental Monitoring - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 116

h i 1 = 4

1 = 4 1 a o

Þ 1 Þ 1 T s ¼ E o ð 1 aÞ=r E o 1 þ Da ð 1 a o þ E a = ð ð 1 : 12 Þ

E o ≪ 1, expand the function of the right-hand part of

the Eq. ( 1.12 ) into Taylor series by degrees

Assuming ʔʱ ≪ 1 and E a =

E o and write

ʔʱ and E a = first terms of

the series:

n o

1 = 4

Þ 1 1 þ E a =

T s E o 1 a o E o

ð Þ=r 1 þ 0 : 25 Da ð 1 a o ð 1 : 13 Þ

It follows from Eq. ( 1.13 ) that the temperature at not so strong anthropogenic
impacts is the sum of the terms describing the bonds in the system “ surface-

atmosphere , without account of anthropogenic factors, and the terms T 1 and T 2 ,

representing the contribution of heat and aerosols emissions, respectively:

”

1 = 4 E a =

Þ 1 E o 1 a o E o 96 E o ; T 1 ¼ 0 : 25 1 a o ð ð Þ=r : 046E a =

1 = 4

Þ 1 E o 1 a o T 2 ¼ 0 : 25 1 a o ð ð Þ=r Da 96 : 046 Da:

Note that the contribution of T 1 in present conditions is very small. Assuming
that E a =4 10 − 5 cal/cm 2 min and, hence, E a = E o ¼ 8 21 10 4 , × : then

T 1 = 0.0079 C. Thus the direct impact of the global energy on the atmospheric

average temperature is now negligible. It follows from the expression for T 1 that to
raise the atmospheric temperature by 0.5

°

° C due to thermal emissions, the condition

E a = E o ¼ 0

:

0052 should be satis ed, and this means an increase of anthropogenic

heat fluxes to the environment by a factor of 63.4. This is equivalent to energy

release at the annual burning of 570

fl

10 9 t of conventional fuel.
If we assume that the energy production is proportional to the size of population,
then T 1 ¼ 96

×

E o , where G is the population density, men/km 2 ; ˃ S is

the land area, km 2 ; k TG is the per capita amount of produced energy, cal/min.
If we neglect the impact of aerosol on the atmospheric thermal regime, then the
direct radiation E, its change dE and the change of atmospheric turbidity dB will be
related as: dE/E =

: 046k TG G r S =

k B dB, where k B = 0.1154 km 2 /t is the proportion coef cient, B is

the amount of anthropogenic aerosols, t/km 2 . After integrating this equation, we
obtain: E ¼ E o ð 1 a o Þ exp k B B

−

nition
of albedo, E ¼ E o ð 1 aÞ ¼E o ð 1 a o þ DaÞ . Equating these expressions for E,
we obtain ʔʱ = − (1 − ʱ o )[1 − exp( − k B B)]. Hence, a temperature change due to
pollution of the atmosphere by anthropogenic aerosols is equal to:

ð Þ . On the other hand, according to the de

1 = 4 1 exp k B B

25 E o 1 a o

T 2 ¼ 0 : ð Þ=r ½ ð Þ ¼ 62 : 43 1 exp k B B ½ ð Þ :

Since the average emission of anthropogenic aerosols is estimated by many
authors at 300 10 6 t/year, and the average period of the aerosols residence in the

atmosphere is estimated at 3 weeks, 17.262

×

10 6 tons of particles, on the average,

×