Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
Martin Ford
Martin Ford is the author of
The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating
Technology and the Economy of the Future
. The topic argues that accelerating
information technology, and in particular robotics and artificial
intelligence, is likely to have a disruptive impact on the future job
market and economy. He has also written articles focusing on job
automation technology for publications such as
Forbes, Fortune,
and the
Washington Post.
Ford is the founder of a Silicon Valley-based software development firm
and has over 25 years experience in the fields of computer design and
software development. He holds a computer engineering degree from the University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, and a graduate business degree from the University of California, Los Angeles. He blogs
regularly at
http://econfuture.wordpress.com
.
What is propelling the trend toward job automation?
The primary force is the continuing acceleration of information technology. Computers are now able
to take on basic cognitive tasks such as decision making and problem solving to an unprecedented
degree, and this capability is certain to advance greatly over the next decade and beyond. We can
expect dramatic advances in both robotics and software automation applications that take on tasks
and analysis now performed by white-collar workers.
A closely related issue is the vast amount of data now being collected throughout the economy: busi-
nesses are tracking the actions and behaviors of both consumers and workers. Virtually every trans-
action and customer interaction, as well as a great many activities internal to organizations, is being
recorded. As organizations strive to make sense of—and somehow leverage—all that information, al-
gorithmic approaches are becoming the only viable option. That is driving a lot of development in
artificial intelligence (in particular, machine learning), and ultimately those advances are likely to get
applied to a great many areas, including job automation.
Economic factors are also, of course, important. As consumer demand remains relatively weak, the pri-
mary path to corporate profitability is through efficiency and cost cutting. The danger going forward
is that business will continue to focus on extracting as much wealth as possible through cost cutting,
rather than on making investments that create new markets and help expand the economy.
Why should we be concerned about the trend toward job automation?
I think it is a matter of degree. Technology has, of course, been advancing for hundreds of years,
and we are all far better off because of that. However, I think we may soon approach a tipping point
where machines evolve from being tools to becoming autonomous workers. Historically, as technology
advanced and machines became more capable, the value of the average worker operating one of those
machines increased, and so average wages also increased. However, once machines, on the average, get
closer to running themselves, the value of workers will begin to stagnate and then decrease rather than
increase over time. In fact, we see evidence of that already: real wages for average workers in the United
States have not increased since the 1970s.
Once we pass that tipping point, technology will no longer drive broad-based prosperity. Instead, the
fruits of innovation will all go to a tiny number of people at the top of the income distribution—to
people who own or control large amounts of capital.
