Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
Asimov's short stories and novels, technology is seen as a tool for the betterment of
mankind. Intelligent robots may be disliked by some people, but they are not a threat.
The “Three Laws of Robotics” are etched into their positronic brains, guaranteeing that
they will never turn against their creators [3]. Other writers, such as Kurt Vonnegut
Jr., describe dystopias. Vonnegut's
Player Piano
concerns a future America in which
nearly all manufacturing jobs have been lost to automation. People hate machines for
taking away their feelings of self-worth, yet their fascination with automation makes its
triumph appear inevitable [4].
In the “jobless recovery” following the Great Recession of 2008-2009, corporate
profits have soared, but the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high. Are we
about to enter an era of high unemployment caused by automation? Let's consider both
sides of this question.
Automation has been blamed for the loss of both manufacturing and white-collar jobs,
as well as an increase in the length of the workweek for salaried employees.
LOST MANUFACTURING JOBS
Manufacturing employment peaked in the United States in 1979, with 19.4 million
jobs. By 2011 manufacturing employment had dropped 40 percent, to 11.7 million,
even though the population of the United States had increased 39 percent during the
same time period. The percentage of American workers involved in manufacturing has
dropped significantly, from 35 percent in 1947 to 9 percent in 2011 (Figure 10.1).
Meanwhile, thanks to automation, manufacturing output in America continues to
rise and has doubled since 1970 [5]. In other words, productivity has increased: fewer
workers are making more products. For example, in 1977 it took 35 person-hours to
manufacture an automobile in the United States. By 2008 the number of person-hours
had dropped to 15 [6].
LOST WHITE-COLLAR JOBS
The effects of automation are felt in the office, too. Email, voice mail, and high-speed
copy machines eliminate secretarial and clerical positions. Even jobs requiring advanced
degrees are vulnerable. Spreadsheets and other software packages reduce the need for
accountants and bookkeepers [7]. Twenty years ago, a pharmacist in a small Canadian
town would fill about 8,000 prescriptions in a year. Today Merck-Medco runs a Web-
accessible pharmacy that uses robots to dispense 8,000 prescriptions an
hour
[8].
In fact, the economic recovery of 1991-1996 was notable because of the large num-
ber of white-collar, middle-management jobs that were eliminated even as the economy
grew. Unlike the recession of the early 1980s, most of the people whose jobs were elim-
inated in the 1990s had at least some college education. A large number of these jobs
were occupied by people making more than $50,000. Only 35 percent of these higher-
paid victims of downsizing were able to find jobs that paid as well [9].
