Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
FIGURE 8.7
We rely on computer simulations to predict the path and speed of hurricanes.
(Courtesy of NASA)
Drilling a single well costs millions of dollars, and most drillings result in “dry wells”
that produce no revenue. By using computer simulations, the process becomes much
more predictable. Geologists lay out networks of microphones and set off explosive
charges. Computers analyze the echoes received by the microphones to produce graph-
ical representations of underground rock formations. Analyzing these formations helps
petroleum engineers select the most promising sites to drill.
Computer simulations are also used to predict the future. Modern weather predic-
tions are based on computer simulations. These predictions become particularly impor-
tant when people are exposed to extreme weather conditions, such as floods, tornadoes,
and hurricanes (Figure 8.7). Every computer simulation has an underlying mathematical
model. Faster computers enable scientists and engineers to develop more sophisticated
models. Over time, the quality of these models has improved.
Of course, the predictions made by computer simulations can be wrong. In 1972
the Club of Rome, an international think tank based in Germany, commissioned a book
called
The Limits to Growth.
The topic predicted that a continued exponential increase in
world population would lead to shortages of minerals and farm land, higher food prices,
and significant increases in pollution [52]. A year after the topic was published, the Arab
oil embargo resulted in dramatically higher oil and gasoline prices in Western nations,
giving credence to these alarming forecasts. As it turns out, the topic's predictions were
far too pessimistic. While the population of the Earth has indeed increased by more than
80 percent in the past 40 years, the amount of tilled land has barely increased, food and
mineral prices have dropped, and pollution is in decline in major Western cities [53].
The computer model underlying
The Limits to Growth
was flawed. It assumed all de-
posits of essential resources had already been discovered. In actuality, many new deposits
of oil and other resources have been found in the past four decades. The model ignored
the technological improvements that allow society to decrease its use of resources, such
