Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
INSIGHT: The future—the ageing population
At the end of the twentieth century, 11 per cent of the world's population was aged 60
and above. By 2050, one in five will be 60 years or older, and by 2150, one in three will
be 60 years or older. However, the older population itself is ageing. The health
revolution, which has given millions of elderly persons relatively good health well into
their eighties, has also helped drive tourism's growth in general and health-related travel
in particular. The population of 45 to 64 year olds will grow nearly five times faster than
the total population between 2000 and 2010; between 2010 and 2030, the population over
65 will grow eight times faster than the total population (Tarlow and Muehsam 1992).
The increase in the number of very old people (aged 80+ years) between 1950 and 2050
is projected to grow by a factor of from eight to ten times on the global scale. On current
trends, by 2150, about one-third of the older population will be 80 years or older. As well
as a general ageing of the world's population there are also substantial regional
differences in the aged population. For example, currently one in five Europeans is 60
years or older, but one in twenty Africans is 60 years or older. In some developed
countries, the proportion of older persons is close to one in five. According to the United
Nations, during the first half of the twenty-first century that proportion will reach one in
four and, in some countries, one in two (United Nations, Division for Social Policy and
Development 1998). Given that the vast majority of the world's tourists come from the
developed countries, such a demographic shift will clearly have substantial implications
for the international health tourism industry. Not only may particular types of tourism
continue to grow in popularity, such as cruising, but also second
homes and retirement homes and the provision of health facilities for retired people may
become increasingly important in destination development strategies. For example, areas
of the European Mediterranean, the Iberian Peninsula and the south-west United States
and Florida are already subject to substantial seasonal (e.g. Hall and Müller 2004) and
permanent retirement migration (e.g. A.M.Williams et al. 1997; King et al. 1998, 2000)
that is designed to further healthy retirement lifestyles.
In the United States the number of persons aged 65 and above has grown faster than
the general population. The Travel Industry Association of America estimated that by the
year 2000, elderly people would comprise approximately one-quarter of the nation's
population (Tarlow and Muehsam 1992). With people living longer following retirement,
the lifestyles of the mature traveller will have a substantial influence on the development
and supply of tourism infrastructure. For example, Modern Maturity, a North American
lifestyles journal for the over-fifties, surveyed its subscribers about their travel habits and
preferences. Over 37 per cent travelled three to five times a year, 46 per cent preferred
car travel over any other type of transportation, 42 per cent indicated that the purpose of
their trip was to relax, 39 per cent preferred just their partner as a travelling companion,
46 per cent preferred to go to museums over any other tourist attraction, and 67 per cent
stayed in hotels (Modern Maturity 1999:12). This group not only will have the most
available free time of any segment of the population, but also will have the greatest
amount of disposable income. Already, travellers over age 60 make up well over 30 per
cent of all room nights sold within the American lodging industry. Older travellers spend
more nights away from home (8 2) than do travellers under age 50 (4 8) according to the
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