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but then fail in their prediction of the latter stages of the model. Haywood (1986) along
with other commentators (e.g. Rink and Swan 1979; Cooper 1992; Ioannides 1992) note
that there are a variety of different shaped curves with the shape of the curve depending
on both supply and demand side factors. Indeed, Haywood (1986:154) goes so far as to
argue that the life cycle approach 'represents the supply side view of the diffusion
model', by which consumers adopt new products.
According to Haywood (1986) there are six operational decisions when using the life
cycle concept:
• unit of analysis
• relevant market
• pattern and stages of the tourist area life cycle
• identification of the area's shape in the life cycle
• determination of the unit of measurement
• determination of the relevant time unit.
Using Haywood's insights as a basis for undertaking research on the life cycle, Graber
(1997) undertook an analysis of the destination life cycles of 43 European cities using the
variables of growth data for domestic and international tourism, first time visitor
percentage, length of stay, guest-mix distribution and number of
competitors. Only a small number of the variables tested proved to be significant
correlates of the life cycle. According to Graber (1997:69), 'A diminishing rate of first-
time visitors is obvious for cities passing through later stages of the cycle'.
In contrast to many of the more product life cycle interpretations of Butler's life cycle
model which have come from a marketing orientation, Hall (2005c) has argued that the
life cycle of a destination should be assessed in terms of accessibility and spatial
interaction modelling. Hall (2005a, 2005c) observed that Butler's (1980) model is an
analogue of changed accessibility between generating areas and a destination.
Butler (1980) cited Wolfe's (1952) research on summer cottages in Ontario as an
example 'that each improvement in the accessibility to a recreation area results in
significantly increased visitation and an expansion of the market area' (Butler 1980:11).
In addition to Wolfe's work, Butler also cited the research of Stansfield (1972, 1978) as
highlighting the importance of accessibility as a factor in influencing change in tourism
destinations. Stansfield's (1978) discussion of Atlantic City and a cycle of resort change
is particularly instructive with respect to transport and accessibility issues with Stansfield
noting the influence of transport related time/distance on the development of Atlantic
City as a 'surf and sand' (Stansfield 1978) destination:
Connecting customers with the resort is the basis of all resort
development; all recreation and tourism patterns take place within a time
and space frame. Atlantic City's time-distance and cost-distance relative
to Philadelphia were a successful blend of shortest straight line distance
and the efficiency of the railroad,
(Stansfield 1978:242)
