Tourism's Future - Tourism: Principles, Practices, Philosophies - page 451

TABLE 20.2 Global Forces (Mega Drivers) that will Influence Tourism in the Third Millennium

Mega Drivers Nature Name

Mega driver 1 Social A world of changing values

Mega driver 2 Social Living with uncertainty and fear

Mega driver 3 Economic The dichotomy between rich and poor

Mega driver 4 Political The power of USA in the world

Mega driver 5 Economic The power of the Asian block in the world

Mega driver 6 Economic The power of EU in the world

Mega driver 7 Economic/Technological A changing business world

Mega driver 8 Social The global/local society

Mega driver 9 Political The relationship between people and governments

Mega driver 10 Technological/Social AIDS

Mega driver 11 Technological Physical access: Transport of people and goods

Mega driver 12 Technological Access to knowledge

Mega driver 13 Economic/Social Changing labor and demographics

Mega driver 14 Economic/Political Energy/oil

Mega driver 15 Environmental The environment, natural resources, and climate

Mega driver 16 Basic Human Need Food

Mega driver 17 Technological New technologies

Source: Ian Yeoman with the Future Foundation, Tomorrow's Tourists: Scenarios and Trends, Amsterdam: Elsevier (2008).

in uences (or what Yeoman has de ned as mega drivers see Table 20.2), will signi cantly alter the

nature and shape of tourism in the coming years and decades. 6 These in uences will present tourism
managers with a number of new realities to overcome or adapt to. At the same time, they will also
present new horizons that open up many new opportunities for growth and enhancement of the
tourism experience. The speci c forces that in uence tourism are, of course, constantly changing.
Some of the most in uential for the present and into the foreseeable future are discussed next.
While all these mega drivers will in uence the future of tourism, there are certain of them that will
be particularly important for tourism

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and in addition, there will be a number of changes that we
should seek to understand in greater depth, as they involve changes that are fundamental to the well-
being of the tourism sector.

—

Economic

Despite the current economic situation, tourism can optimistically anticipate continued moderate-to-
good overall rates of global economic growth of the traditional economies, but with a special
importance for certain emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia. History
may very well prove us wrong in the longer term, but in the foreseeable future, it is expected that
competitive economic forces will continue to triumph over ideologies. Over the past several decades,
we have seen throughout the world the emergence of what appear to be overpowering pressures to
adopt the model of the market economy.
As part of another model, we have seen movements toward deregulation, privatization, regional
economic integration, and toward a greater role for the global, or transnational, corporation. Whether
these movements represent temporary change or a lasting restructuring of our economic system
remains to be seen. However, for the moment, the direction of the tide is unquestionable.