Travel Reference
In-Depth Information
willingness to venture far from home. Until the threat of war is diminished, and until we adequately
address the issue of climate change, tourismmanagers will have to develop a comprehensive destination
policy, strategy, andmanagement framework that adapts to and accommodates the reality of long-term
terrorism and climate change.
Some of the dimensions of this adaptation and accommodation are already recognizable, and
indeed, some are even predictable. Others are as yet but stirrings of anxiety or discontent. These
stirrings are possibly the most disconcerting for the mature adults of the so-called developed
nations
adults whose well-being and prosperity have improved constantly over their lifetime. For
perhaps the first time, the fundamental changes occurring around them threaten to leap out of control
and to undermine the foundations of their secure and attractive lifestyles. Others, in less fortunate
circumstances, see these same changes as possibly the only glimmer of hope for what they view as a
more equitable distribution of all the opportunities that life has to offer. Ironically, they may see these
same changes as irrevocably condemning themselves to a life of endless poverty.
LEISURE, TOURISM, AND SOCIETY IN
THE THIRD MILLENNIUM
A signi cant component of the high-quality lifestyle that characterized the last half of the twentieth
century was access to, as well as the use of, increasing amounts of leisure time. Although the extent of
this increase in leisure time has been questioned for decades, 4 there is little doubt that in aggregate terms
the populations of the developed Western nations have had greater and more broadly based access to
recreation and travel opportunities than has any previous society. As a result, tourism has grown to the
point where it is now claimed that, with elderly populations being more frequent users of health-related
goods and services, tourism and health care will be the world's largest industries by 2022. 5 While
traditionally those in the tourism sector have lamented the lack of recognition received by the industry,
from both governments and the public, this situation is changing dramatically
in many cases, to the
chagrin of the tourism establishment. Suddenly, tourism is being blamed for the destruction of cultures,
degradation of the environment, and homogenization of lifestyles. In brief, because of its growing
economic and social importance, tourismhas suddenly found itself thrust into themainstreamof societal
concerns
this at a time when all aspects of society are being questioned as to their value, their
continued relevance, and, perhaps above all, their sustainability over the long term.
It is against this background of global societal change that several leading organizations and
individuals having a strong interest in the future of tourism have attempted to understand the
important forces of change in the world and their likely implications for the future of tourism. A review
and analysis of the conclusions of these efforts indicates that tomorrow
s tourists will face a number of
constraints and limitations that cannot be ignored. These new realities will force tourism policy makers
and the tourism industry to alter dramatically the way it both develops and operates. They will also
require that tourists themselves alter their demands and their behaviors. These changes that are now
imposing themselves are, however, by no means entirely negative. Many can be viewed as corrections
to the bad judgments and excesses of the past. Others represent opportunities for innovative and
exciting new products and experiences. These new horizons in tourismmay well prove more rewarding,
and certainly more sustainable, than those of the past.
'
NEW REALITIES NEW HORIZONS: GLOBAL FORCES
IMPACTING THE FUTURE OF TOURISM
Tourism has had an illustrious past since the 1950s and currently has a dynamic present. It is not
surprising that its future is equally optimistic. Despite this optimism, a large number of major
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