Tourism's Future - Tourism: Principles, Practices, Philosophies - page 447

INTRODUCTION

We cannot make wise choices if we do not understand current world trends and their likely
consequence for ourselves and the options we have for achieving our goals.
—

Edward Cornish, Editor, The Futurist magazine 1

D espite the current concerns caused by climate change, the future of tourism, at least for the next

decade, continues to be full of promise. Projections concerning the levels of arrivals, receipts, and
growth in employment for most destinations have all painted a fairly rosy picture. Although we will
acknowledge the vulnerabilities of tourism, the contents of this chapter re ect the general optimism
that continues to pervade the travel industry.
Over and above this optimism, what is especially important about this chapter is its attempt to
de ne some of the more speci c dimensions of future changes, and the challenges and opportunities
they create. In addition, it seeks to indicate how the travel product may need to evolve in response to
these challenges and opportunities.
Finally, we also wish to sound a cautious note. As shown by the recent economic crisis, even the
most dynamic of economies can turn sour. On top of this, the events of September 11, 2001, continue
to haunt the tourism industry. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) also drastically impacted
Asian and Canadian travel in the last decade. Natural disasters such as the 2011 tsunami in Japan that
affected its nuclear reactors can change a country in a day. While stability and growth almost always
return to these regions and many forecasters are now optimistic that a full recovery from the

'' deepest

recession since the great depression of the 1930s is just around the corner, it is still clear that the

lessons of history are that we must learn to manage effectively in bad times as well as good. So while
readers should prepare for the optimistic future trends that this chapter presents, they should also ask
themselves,

''

How might the travel industry take advantage of periods of climate change
and lower economic growth? How might the travel industry be a catalyst for other sectors of the
economy? And

'' What if? ''

— as we said at the beginning of this text — bon voyage!

TOURISM IN THE THIRD MILLENNIUM

The purpose of this topic has been to provide the student with a basic understanding of the principles,
practices, and philosophies of tourism as they relate to the industry and society of today. To
understand the present, it has, of course, been necessary to review the evolution and historical
development of the field. Clearly, the tourism industry of today is the product of many forces that
have shaped both its structure and the manner in which it functions. As has been pointed out on
several occasions, the growth and development of tourism has been particularly rapid over the past
half century:

Since 1950, when international travel started to become accessible to the general public, tourist
activity has risen from 25 million to 880 million arrivals in 2009.

&

International tourism receipts have risen from US$2.1 billion to US$852 billion in 2009. 2

&

The result is that tourism, as we entered the thirdmillennium, was a very large and dynamic sector of
the economy. On the one hand, because of the rapid growth and change of the past, one might be
inclined to believe that tourism has now reached a mature phase of its development in which the rate of
change and expansion will decrease. On the other hand, a realistic assessment of the probable future
suggests that despite the challenges it faces (and has always faced), tourism is likely to continue to grow
and develop more rapidly and more dynamically than many other sectors for many years to come.