Measuring and Forecasting Demand - Tourism: Principles, Practices, Philosophies - page 288

quality is a highly personal matter, and what is high quality to one tourist is not necessarily high
quality to another. Also, if a tourist does not have previous travel experience at a destination, can he
or she accurately judge the quality of services there? In such a case, the tourist must select a
destination based on what the quality of service is perceived to be. Often, due to misleading
advertisements or inaccurate input from others, the tourist's perception of the quality of service
may not be realized at the destination. Such a situation has serious implications for establishing a
repeat clientele, which is an important ingredient for success in the tourist business. Consequently,
a destination area must be meticulous in projecting an accurate image.

Seasonality

The effect of on demand is quite apparent. The relative attractiveness of a given

destination will depend on the time of year for which a vacation is planned. For a ski resort, for
example, the demand will be at the highest level during the winter months. Resistance is at a minimum
in this season.
The following illustrates the relationship between propensity, resistance, and demand, in terms of
these variables as just described.

seasonality

D (Demand) = f (propensity, resistance)

Propensity Depends On:
Psychographics
Demographics (socioeconomic status)
Marketing effectiveness

Resistance Depends On:
Economic distance
Cultural distance
Cost of tourist services
Quality of service
Seasonality

MEASURING DEMAND

Demand is strongly affected and limited by the supply. If the supply aspects are not taken into

consideration when using demand figures, planners might be led into the false assumption that in a
particular area, the supply should be increased to meet the demand when, in actuality, the increased
supply may be needed much more elsewhere.
There are several measures of actual demand:

1. Visitor arrivals

2. Visitor-days or visitor-nights

3. Amount spent

Visitor Arrivals

Simply counting the number of people who arrive at a destination is a measure of demand, although
not a particularly adequate one. However, when visitors arrive by ship or aircraft, for example, to an
island, quite accurate data are obtainable. Those who are en route to another destination should
not be included in the arrival data.

are the easiest type of data to obtain, especially
if public transportation is the principal mode used. Regular reporting of visitor arrivals is of value in

Visitor arrivals