Passenger Transportation - Tourism: Principles, Practices, Philosophies - page 103

Growth

World and U.S. air transportation is expected to grow in the future. Growth, as in the past, will be
tempered by war, diseases such as SARS, tsunamis, volcanic ash, and economic recessions; however,
the long-term trend is growth even with these setbacks.
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration 2030 predicts

domestic passenger enplanements will increase by 0.5 percent in 2010 and then grow an average of
2.5 percent per year through 2030 (Table 5.3). U.S. airlines, which carried 704 million passengers
(passenger enplanements) in 2009, will carry one billion passengers a year by 2023 and 1.21 billion by

' s 20-year forecast for fiscal years 2010 -

TABLE 5.3 U.S. Commercial Air Carriers a Total Scheduled U.S. Passenger Traffic

Revenue Passenger Enplanements
(in millions)

Revenue Passenger Miles
(in billions)

Fiscal Year Domestic International System Domestic International System

2010 634.1 73.4 707.4 551.5 220.7 772.2

2011 645.7 76.3 722.0 561.5 231.0 792.5

2012 667.7 79.7 747.3 585.5 242.7 828.2

2013 687.8 83.2 771.1 608.3 254.9 863.2

2014 705.5 86.9 792.4 629.1 267.6 896.7

2015 723.1 90.6 813.7 650.3 280.5 930.8

2016 740.6 94.3 834.9 671.1 293.8 964.9

2017 758.2 98.1 856.3 692.4 307.3 999.7

2018 777.4 102.2 879.6 715.4 321.6 1,037.0

2019 798.3 106.5 904.8 740.4 336.9 1,077.3

2020 821.4 111.1 932.6 767.8 353.2 1,120.9

2021 842.5 115.7 958.2 792.9 369.6 1,162.4

2022 863.3 120.5 983.7 818.1 386.4 1,204.4

2023 884.7 125.3 1,010.1 844.2 403.8 1,248.1

2024 906.4 130.3 1,036.7 870.8 422.0 1,292.8

2025 929.3 135.6 1,064.9 899.0 441.2 1,340.2

2026 952.4 141.1 1,093.5 927.0 461.1 1,388.1

2027 974.9 146.7 1,121.5 954.7 481.6 1,436.2

2028 997.9 152.4 1,150.3 983.2 502.8 1,486.0

2029 1,021.0 158.3 1,179.3 1,012.1 524.8 1,536.8

2030 1,045.5 164.5 1,210.0 1,042.6 547.9 1,590.6

Avg. Annual Growth
2000 - 2009 0.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.8% 2.1% 1.1%

2009 - 2010 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

2010 - 2020 2.6% 4.2% 2.8% 3.4% 4.8% 3.8%

2009 - 2030 2.4% 4.0% 2.6% 3.1% 4.4% 3.5%

a Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
Source: Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.