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Progress in Earth System Science: What
Does It Take to Make Our Ideas Clear?
Gerrit Lohmann
Abstract To describe the progress in Earth System Science, a conceptual frame-
work is proposed which includes hypothesis testing, the formulation of models with
different complexity as well as expressing discoveries in terms of metaphors. The
later approach is demonstrated by the conveyor belt concept in oceanography which
in
uenced the discussion about abrupt climate changes where the ocean circulation
may be involved. It is argued that the combination of different methodologies/
complexities and independent results is necessary to prevent over-simplistic views
in each discipline of Earth System Science. Emphasis is given on typical steps to
obtain new ideas for a new discovery. Examples for over-simplistic views are
mentioned for past climate information from proxy data. The recorder system of the
proxy has to be taken into account, otherwise the climate information can be
misinterpreted. It is concluded that in the
fl
field of Earth System Science, basic
knowledge and true collaborative problem solving is necessary to make scientists
aware of the underlying principles, the limitations and open questions. This is
furthermore necessary to develop and sharpen our ideas about the complex Earth
System.
1 Self-critical Approach
In Earth System Science, there is a diversity of methods, and the modeling,
observational and reconstructing communities are still rather distinct. As we
mentioned in our
rst topic (Lohmann et al. 2013a ), the linking of
'
data and
modeling
, as is the special emphasis of our graduate school, enables graduate
students from a variety of disciplines to cooperate and exchange views on the
common theme of Earth System Science, which leads to a better understanding of
'
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