Reducing the Energy Carbon Content - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 74

In its reference scenario [1], the IEA predicts a drop in the share of
nuclear energy in electricity production from 16% in 2006 to 13% in
2030, despite an increase in installed power from 372GWe in 2007 to
433GWe in 2030.
In view of the advantages of nuclear energy in terms of climate change,
however, we could witness much faster growth of nuclear energy in the
future. According to a vision from the nuclear industry, the 'high' scenario
published by the in 2005 predicts an installed

power of 740GWe, which amounts to a reversal of the current trend.
This nevertheless shows that, even assuming a sharp increase in the
share of nuclear energy in electricity production, it will only be possible to
cover a limited fraction of the primary energy supply throughout the
transition period.

World Nuclear Association

Renewable energy prospects

Renewable energies are currently considered as amere backup solution. In
the world, they represented 1513Mtoe in 2006, i.e. 13% of the primary
energy production [1].
Out of this total, biomass and waste accounted for 1186Mtoe and
hydraulic power 261Mtoe. These two energy sources, which make the
largest contribution to the renewable energy balance, have already been
used for many years.
The potential for development of hydraulic power remains limited. For
the last thirty years or so, the contribution of hydraulic power in world-
wide energy production has stagnated in absolute value and its relative
share has dropped, from 21% in 1973 to 16% in 2006. In France,
construction of new sites mainly concerns mini or micro hydraulic
facilities, but it is faced with numerous obstacles, not only financial but
also in terms of social acceptability.
The case of biomass energy is quite different. Biomass represents a
considerable potential, with a worldwide estimated figure of 2230Mtoe,
including 1600Mtoe of forest origin [58].
The biomass energy development prospects are therefore promising,
especially as regards cogeneration of electricity and heat. They will be
analysed below. The case of biofuels, another important market for
biomass, will also be examined in further detail below.
Themain development hopes concernwind and solar power, which still
only represent a minor proportion of energy production (respectively,
0.34 and 0.09Mtoe in France in 2007). The disadvantage with these