The Essential Energy Transition - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 41

Figure 4.1 Trend in the share of non-fossil energy
within a range not exceeding 30-40%, even given a favourable scenario,
with assumptions aimed at favouring the penetration of non-fossil ener-
gies [3, 17-19].
The global transition, resulting in significant replacement of fossil
energies by non-fossil energies, will therefore last a considerable period
of time. Even though it has already started, it will probably not be
completed before 2100.
This duration is due to the time required to develop alternative solutions
and the intrinsic inertia of the energy sector. The investments made
for energy production facilities such as power stations are repaid over
periods extending up to thirty or forty years. In the automotive industry,
the time required to design a new type of vehicle and setting up the
production lines is also very long. Introduction of new equipment is faster
in the emerging countries, but the top priority of these countries is to
ensure their own development rather than reduce their CO 2 emissions.
Also, in a certain number of applications, no immediate alternatives are
available. This is the case, in particular, for the transport sector, which is
almost exclusively dependent on oil.
Even when these alternatives are available, their distribution takes a
certain amount of time since equipment is only renewed relatively slowly:
this is true of the housing sector, in particular.
Given the urgent need to find solutions to the various threats and in
particular to limit climate change, it is obvious that we cannot wait
for completion of a long drawn-out transition and concrete measures
must be taken quickly to face the problems posed.