The Threat of Climate Change - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 33

The current CO 2 emission growth rate, far fromdeclining, is tending on
the contrary to accelerate due in particular to the rapid development of
China. China, which relies heavily on coal, is becoming the main CO 2
emitter in the world, ahead of the USA. In 2006, China sCO 2 emissions

were 8% higher than those of the USA, while in 2005 they were 2% less
and in 2000, 28% less.
At world level, between 2000 and 2004, the total CO 2 emissions
increased at a rate of 3.1% per annum, as compared with 1.1% during
the previous years.
If the current trend continues, by 2050 CO 2 emissions would increase,
not by 100%, as indicated in the reference scenariomentioned previously,
but by 130% with an annual growth rate of 2% and up to more than
250% with an annual growth rate of 3%. The current trend is therefore
moving in the direction exactly opposite to that required. To avoid
catastrophic and irreversible climate change, we must rapidly reverse
this trend by implementing, as a matter of urgency, a large-scale action
plan designed to limit CO 2 emissions.

Urgency of the actions to be undertaken

The urgency of the measures to be taken is sometimes discussed. Two
types of argument are put forward to delay the decisions:

- A first argument is to consider that the future remains uncertain. The
degree of uncertainty is considered as an argument for biding time,
with the hope that in the futurewewill be in a better position to assess
the situation and optimise the strategy to be applied.
- A second argument is based on the idea that new technologies will
emerge during the next few years, placing us in a better position to
tackle the problem. This opinion, which reflects the stance taken by
the current American administration, relies on the development of
new technologies to provide the right solutions in time.

In addition to these arguments, we are faced with the psychological
difficulty of tackling a future catastrophe, which has not yet happened
even if it is imminent. As J.-P. Dupuy 4 wrote: 'knowing is not believing'
and it is difficult for us to imagine a future catastrophe and even more

4 A French scientist and philosophe.