The Threat of Climate Change - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 31

The Kyoto Protocol objectives seem relatively modest compared with
the requirements. The Kyoto Protocol nevertheless offers the major
advantage of having initiated a process and having set up mechanisms
aimed at reducing CO 2 emissions.
The question of the post-Kyoto period nowarises: what actions must be
taken after 2012? A new step must be defined to move towards the
targeted objective.
The European Union has demonstrated its determination to make
further progress, by setting itself the objective of a 20% cut in greenhouse
gas emissions by 2020. The actual means required to reach this objective
still remain to be defined.
The economic mechanisms to limit greenhouse gas emissions will only
be truly effective if they are generalised. The introduction of emission
allowances or a carbon tax has major impacts on the economy [32, 33]. It
is important to avoid the negative impact of distortion of the competition
between countries whichwould not apply the same rules. This could result
in delocalisation of the most CO 2 -polluting industries to countries whose
environmental regulations are most lax.
Consequently, there is an urgent need to reach an international agree-
ment covering the post-Kyoto period, with precise figures on the reduction
of CO 2 emissions which would be accepted and applied by as many
countries as possible and especially by the most polluting countries.

The factor 4 problem

Various scenarios concerning climate change and CO 2 emissions have
been produced, especially by the IPCC.
In the reference trend scenario shown in Figure 3.3, the emissions of
carbon as CO 2 related to energy consumption change from 7 to 14 Gt
of carbon per year between the current period and 2050, i.e. from 26.6 to
52 Gt of CO 2 (trend A). Such a trend would produce a level of CO 2 in
the atmosphere which is totally unacceptable in terms of impact on the
climate.
We must therefore consider an alternative scenario on CO 2 emission
trends which would be compatible with the aim of limiting the average
temperature increase to 2 C compared with the pre-industrial situation.
Scenarios of this type have been drawn up in the European Union in the
context of the (GRP) study.

According to the two objective scenarios, the concentration levels of the
six greenhouse gases would stabilise respectively at 550 ppmand 650 ppm

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Pathways