The Threat of Climate Change - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 29

Should we consider that there will be winners and losers, and that the
countries in the north (or the extreme south) will benefit from climate
change? Such an attitude would be hazardous and risky. Certain countries
could partially benefit fromthe situation, provided that the climate change
remains moderate. If the change was to intensify, they would themselves
suffer fromthe dramatic consequences, and the tensions resulting fromthe
distress of the worst hit countries would escalate out of control. Famine,
water shortage, floods and the increased risks of epidemics would in-
evitably lead to massive migrations and conflicts which would be all
the more fierce for being quite literally a fight for survival. Despite the
remaining uncertainties it is therefore urgent to combat global warming,
which would threaten our entire planet, with every possible means.
According to the Stern report, if no appropriate measures are taken
immediately, the financial impact of climate changewould amount to over
5500 billionEuros [13]. It reveals that inactionmay turn out to be farmore
expensive than the measures which must be taken immediately to prevent
any worsening of the phenomena related to climate change.
A vigorous action plan is required. The Kyoto Protocol raised public
awareness regarding the problem of climate change, but much more
radical measures must be set up in the future.
Kyoto protocol and post-Kyoto
In 1997, the 188 signatory countries met at Kyoto in order to agree on a
number of restricting commitments.
Amongst the signatory countries, the 38 'Annex 1' industrialised
countries committed to reducing their CO 2 emissions by 5.2% from
1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.
The Kyoto Protocol only came into effect in 2005, after its ratification
by Russia. To date, 172 countries have ratified the Protocol, excluding the
USA which refused to sign.
The European Union as a whole made a commitment to reduce its
emissions by 8%. The efforts to be made by each country varied, with
France simply having to stabilise its emissions.
To reach these objectives, each country may not only use a complete
range of internal measures (energy taxation, energy saving incentives, etc.)
but also resort to three 'flexibility' mechanisms:
- The Joint Implementation (JI) mechanism establishes the possibility
for anAnnex 1 country to obtainCO 2 emission credits by investing in