Growing Risks Ahead - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 13

in 2050. In other words, for a population of 9.1 billion in 2050, this would
mean a figure of 2.5 toe per inhabitant. With higher growth assumptions,
this demand could be far greater. We should on the contrary be aiming for
a reduction in the primary energy demand per inhabitant; an alternative
scenario based on an energy consumption of 1.3 toe per inhabitant in
2050, will be discussed below (see Chapter 9).
Unequal access to energy
While the power produced by a man working is in the region of 100W,
the average power currently available continuously to every inhabitant
on the planet is 2.3 kW, which corresponds to an average energy con-
sumption of 1.7 toe per annum.
There are large disparities, however. Every citizen in the USA consumes
8 toe per annum, i.e. twice and ten times asmuch as European andChinese
citizens, respectively.
With 5% of the world population, the USA uses almost 25% of the
primary energy produced in the world and 50% of the automotive
gasoline consumed by cars.
In the field of automotive transport, despite rapid progress, the Chinese
only have 20 cars per 1000 inhabitants, whereas the Europeans have
600 cars and the Americans 800 cars.
Unable to meet their energy requirements, poor populations are forced
to use wood resources, which are often very limited, for cooking and
heating purposes, thereby accelerating deforestation. When exploitation
of biomass leads to desertification, it is obvious that we can no longer
speak of 'renewable' energy.
These inequalities have existed for so many years that in the most
privileged countries they are regarded as quite normal. Nevertheless,
the rapid development of large emerging countries such as China and
India demonstrates that this type of situation can change quickly. Other
countries, in particular those in Africa, will need energy to allow their
economic growth. It is essential to consider these fundamental require-
ments which, in the current situation, imply higher energy demand.
Risks for the long-term energy supply
The continuous growth in demand raises the question of the availability of
energy in the long term, in sufficient quantities to avoid a major crisis,