Growing Risks Ahead - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 12

Figure 2.1 Growth in population and energy demand ( : IEA). Reproduced

with permission from Energie & Climat: Reussir la transition energetique

Source

by

Alexandre Rojey, ´ ditions Technip, Paris, 2008

growth of 1.6% by 2030, which represents a 50% increase in demand
compared with today.
More than two-thirds of this growth will come from the emerging and
developing countries.
During the twentieth century, worldwide energy consumption was
multiplied by a factor of about ten, representing an average global growth
of 2.3% per annum.
The current growth rate lies between 2% and 2.5%.This growth in de-
mand is primarily due to demographic changes. The world population, just
above2billion50yearsagoandabout4billion30yearsago,hasnowreached
a figure of 6.5 billion people. It is expected to reach 8.2 billion in 2030, and
then 9.1 billion in 2050, despite the predicted slowdown in birth rate.
The rising standard of living also results in higher energy consumption.
The average energy consumption of each inhabitant is expected to grow
from 1.7 toe in 2000 to 2.2 toe in 2030, as shown in Figure 2.1, based on
the IEA reference scenario.
The combination of these two factors, higher population and higher
standard of living, steadily drives up the energy demand. The primary
energy demand is therefore expected to increase from 10 billion toe in
2000 to 17.7 billion toe in 2030 in the reference scenario. If the growth
in population and energy consumption per inhabitant should then slow
down, the primary energy demand could reach a figure of 23 billion toe