How to Ensure the Energy Transition? - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 128

breakthrough innovations, which would radically change preconceived
ideas. In any case, transition technologies should help to prepare for the
future.
In the area of energy production, a diversification of the energy sources
to be used is expected. During the transition period, electricity generation
from fossil fuels, integrating CCS, will coexist with generation from
nuclear and renewable energies, which will represent a growing share.
Progress expected in the area of photovoltaic electricity generation
should lead to an increase in the share of decentralised electricity produc-
tion. The cost of photovoltaic electricity generation is not sensitive to
scaling up, so the transportation cost becomes comparatively more
important, which favours decentralised systems. An increasing use of
intermittent energy sources, such as wind and solar energies, will require
in the longer term the deployment of electricity storage means. Energy
storage is therefore a key technology for the future, as its deployment will
be essential for increasing substantially the share of renewable energy
sources.
It is also necessary to reconsider the whole system of transport for
people and for goods.
Thus, in the future, vehicles adapted to a certain environment might
becomemorewidespreadand, for instance, the centreof urbanareasmight
be restricted to some nonpolluting vehicles only. The advantages of plug-in
hybrid vehicles as a future solution have already been mentioned. The
sharp consumption reduction, which would result from the use of such
an option, might also facilitate the use of biofuels during the transition
period. The biomass resources required for supplying a significant share of
the engine fuels needed would be thus significantly reduced. This technol-
ogy should help also the development of electric vehicles, if significant
progress is achieved in the area of batteries to ensure adequate mileage.
Obstacles to overcome for using hydrogen as a fuel have already been
mentioned, but should not stop research and development activities as
new breakthrough innovations might occur in the future and help to
achieve the required objectives.
Air transport raises difficult questions. Reducing fuel consumption
through the introduction of new materials and the improvement of
propulsion technologies is an important factor for future progress, but
the gains which can be achieved will be most certainly more than
compensated by the increase in traffic. In the future, kerosene might be
at least partly produced from biomass. For economic reasons and taking
into account the limited availability of biomass, such a production will
probably supply only a fraction of the needs.