How to Ensure the Energy Transition? - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 123

Figure 9.1 Comparison between the reference (BAU) scenario and the alternative
(Alt) scenario
- Coal consumption is divided by three as compared with the BAU
scenario and represents only 16%of the total energy consumption in
the Alt scenario.
- The consumption of hydrocarbons, although strongly reduced when
compared with the BAU scenario, remains still close to the present
level, with a significant increase in the share of natural gas, which
implies a significant effort to maintain the corresponding level of
production.
The Alt scenario is consistent with the assumption of oil consumption
reaching a ceiling before 2050, declining later, and coming back to a level
lower than the present one by 2050. It implies the use of oil mainly for
engine fuels production to achieve a large reduction in demand and
the need to develop alternatives (biofuels, plug-in hybrids and possibly
hydrogen as an energy vector by 2050).
The consumption of natural gas is supposed to increase until 2030 and
then to become stable according to a consumption plateau.
Reaching the required goals
The growth according to these two scenarios is represented by the graph
in Figure 9.2. In this graph, the CO 2 emissions expressed in billions of