Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
9
How to Ensure the Energy
Transition?
The conditions required for a successful transition
Can the different options presented previously be used for ensuring a
satisfactory energy transition?
The conditions required for such a successful transition have already
been discussed. The limitation of CO
2
emissions is certainly the main
constraint.Despite all the uncertaintieswhich remain, reasonable assump-
tions have to be made for the future. The objective adopted by the
European Union to limit to 2
C the increase of the mean temperature
appears as themost appropriate.As alreadydiscussed,CO
2
emissionsmust
stay at a level compatible with a CO
2
concentration in the atmosphere
of 450 ppm by 2050. In order not to exceed that level, it is necessary
by 2050 to divide world emissions of CO
2
by a factor of around 2, as
compared with the present level.
At the same time, we might be faced with a limitation of the world
production of hydrocarbons. When dealing with such a situation, it is
necessary to avoid both a major economic crisis and an environmental
catastrophe. Although challenging, the task is not impossible, by initiating
appropriate actions without delay.Whilst the extrapolation of the present
trend leads to an intolerable situation, it is still possible, by deploying the
various means described previously, to implement an evolution scenario
reaching an acceptable situation by 2050.
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