Securing the Supplies of Fossil Fuels - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 98

a well adapted engine, it can lead to excellent results from the environ-
mental standpoint, both in terms of a low pollutants emission at the local
level and CO 2 emissions.
The growing demand for natural gas combinedwith a growing distance
between reserves and consuming areas led to rapid progress in interna-
tional trade, increasing at an average rate of 6.8% per year over the last
twenty years, reaching 845 billionm 3 in 2005 [84].
Transportation by pipe requires significant infrastructures, which leads
to a mutual dependence between the supplier and the consumer. This
mutual dependence represents a stability factor, but can also be consid-
ered as a threat within an uncertain geopolitical situation.
In recent years, LNG (liquefied natural gas) transportation by tanker
has grown rapidly. As a result of the cost reductions already achieved at all
the stages of this transportation chain and the increased flexibility it brings
compared with pipe transportation, LNG represents a major growing
factor for the international trade of natural gas.
LNG transportation by tanker is expected to grow at a rate of 7% per
year until 2020. The level of the international LNG trade has reached
around 515 billionm 3 ensuring 38% of the international gas transit as
comparedwith 22.3%in 2005 [85]. The development of the international
LNG trade therefore represents an important factor for diversifying gas
supplies.
When the distance between the production and the consumer sites
becomes too large, the transportation cost can become prohibitive and
prevent the exploitation of some gas fields. The production of synthetic
fuels fromnatural gas is a newoutlet for natural gas and can be considered
as an alternative to the direct transportation of natural gas in such cases.
The future outlook in this area is discussed later in the chapter.
The recent increase in the price of natural gas, which remains strongly
correlated to the price of oil, and also the economic crisis which occurred in
the secondhalf of 2008havemade the future rateof growthmore uncertain.
Most recent estimations were based upon an average growth rate of around
2% for the overall gas demand during the next two decades [85].
The proven reserves of natural gas amount to 181 000 billionm 3 ,
representing around 64 years of consumption. Taking into account that
1000m 3 of gas equals 0.9 toe, the reserves represent therefore around
163 billion toe, i.e. an amount close to the level of the oil reserves.
Although this situation is more favourable than in the case of oil
(64 years of reserves at the present rate of consumption as compared
with 40 years), the growth of the consumption could lead, if present
reserves are not sufficiently renewed, to a gas peak by 2050.