Securing the Supplies of Fossil Fuels - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 94

As the peak of discoveries occurred in the USA in 1937, he predicted in
1956 that the production peakwould occur in 1970, that is to say fourteen
years later, which is what effectively happened [78].
Since that time, numerous attempts have been made to apply this
method on a world scale level, resulting in many predictions concerning
the date of the future peak oil [82]. However, this method, whichwas very
successfully used for predicting the peak oil in the USA, is difficult to apply
on a world scale level.
The datewhen theworld production of oil will reach a ceiling is not only
a function of the absolute level of resources, but also of technical and
financial means which can be used for exploiting them. It must be stressed
that the concept of peak oil ismuchmore complex on aworld scale thanon
a regional scale. The increase of prices which will result from such a
situation will lead to an increase in production from nonconventional
sources, which are not presently taken into account.
Different predictions concerning a more or less imminent peak oil have
been published recently.
ASPO estimates that peak oil will occur towards 2010, with a produc-
tion ceiling around 90 million barrels per day [81]. The Douglas-
Westwood Company predicts peak oil in 2016 [81] and the oil company
Total, in a report published in 2003, predicts about 2025 [83].
Taking into account the large fluctuations observed concerning the
worldwide production of crude oil, which depend upon the economic
conditions observed at a given time, the exact date of the production
'peak' represents a somewhat theoretical issue.
At the approach of the maximum of production, the oil market is likely
to become very unstable and rather than a peak, a strongly undulating
plateau might be observed.
This is perhaps what is already happening but very unstable economic
conditions would make it difficult to observe such a peak even when it
happens effectively.
It seems likely that amaximum level of production, at around 95 billion
barrels per year, will be reached within the next twenty to thirty years.
Since world production is already about 87.5 billion barrels per day, the
potential increase of this production level is fairly limited.
The growth in oil demand will be the key factor. If it continues to grow
at the present rate, it will be difficult to ensure a supply at the correspond-
ing level. The main problem stems from the necessity to ensure the
investments needed to maintain the required production level. There is
a risk of a gap between supply and demand that no other energy source is
able to compensate rapidly.