Securing the Supplies of Fossil Fuels - Energy and Climate: How to Achieve a Successful Energy Transition - page 90

reserves, but rather to the production level to be maintained during
the whole transition period.
- It is necessary to diversify supply sources, in order to reduce the risks
and especially the geopolitical risks which become critical if the
number of suppliers is small.
- All fossil fuel energy sources are not equivalent. Natural gas leads to
CO 2 emissions per unit energy produced which are much smaller
than those which result from the use of coal.
It would be therefore very detrimental if a short term tension on hydro-
carbon supply leads to a rapid and massive shift towards coal, especially
before the technology of CO 2 capture and storage becomes operational.
To secure the supply of fossil fuels, a first imperative condition is to
reduce their consumption, as discussed inChapter 5. It is also important to
avoid a breakdown of the supplies during the transition period. Finally, it
is necessary to diversify the supply sources and to favour those which have
the smallest impact on the environment.
The end of abundant and cheap oil
The first oil crisis in 1973 and then the second in 1979 have had the effect
of warning signals, favouring the development of 'technological' oil, as
illustrated by the tremendous progress observed in the area of offshore oil
production.
The evolution of oil prices is shown in Figure 7.1; the price of oil per
barrel is expressed both in current US $ and in constant US $ (upper curve).
After a long period of very lowprices, which followed the first discoveries,
the history of oil has become much more turbulent over the last thirty
years. In 1973, the first oil crisis resulted from the YomKippur war. Then,
in 1979, the second crisis followed the Iranian revolution and the
Iran-Iraq war. A counter crisis favoured by the development of techno-
logical oil and a weakening of the role played by OPEC followed, leading
to a new drop in oil prices. It occurred during a period which was marked
by the end of the Cold War and the easing of international relations.
Within this context, there was a feeling that the difficulties were over
and that plenty of hydrocarbon resources were available. Low prices also
had a negative impact on investments concerning technological oil and
alternative energy sources.
A revival of political tension, the war in Iraqwhich followed the Kuwait
invasion, the spreading of terrorism, the increase in world demand and