Geography Reference
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an economy ever being in equilibrium (Ramlogan and Metcalfe, 2006), and its behav-
iour cannot be understood by asking whether it has any equilibrium or steady states
(Durlauf, 1997).
14
Both David and Arthur (and several other scholars of path depend-
ence) recognise the role of learning as a causal mechanism of path dependence, but at
the same time operate with an equilibrium interpretation of path dependence. Further,
complexity theory tells us that 'far-from-equilibrium' systems can be highly structured
and patterned, and strongly path-dependent.
15
In such complex systems, structures and
patterns emerge from processes of self-organisation not as outcomes of asymptotically
equilibrating mechanisms.
16
It would seem, then, that we can distinguish at least three conceptions of path depend-
ence as an evolutionary concept. The i rst and most restrictive is the David-type concep-
tion that dei nes path dependence in terms of the historically contingent selection of, and
lock-in to, one of a multiplicity of possible stable equilibrium outcomes. Once locked in,
it requires an external shock of some kind to dislodge or de-lock the equilibrium state.
The process of economic evolution implied is one in which a technology or industry - or
regional economy - becomes locked in to a particular selected equilibrium path or state,
in which state it remains until such time that an external shock or disturbance (such as a
radical new technology, or a major upheaval in the market for a region's product(s), etc.)
disrupts that state (see the highly schematic representation in Figure 3.2).
It is perhaps signii cant that all of the primary examples of path dependence cited by
David (the QWERTY keyboard, VCR video, AC electrical current, light-water reactors)
have been of technologies or technological coni gurations that once 'locked in' remained
largely unchanged. These might be interpreted as examples of 'stable equilibrium' states,
but they are clearly only one type of economic evolution, and arguably a restricted form
at that.
The second conception is of the Setteri eld type, wherein path dependence processes
generate a 'temporary equilibrium' outcome that then gives rise to a subsequent endog-
enous process of 'innovating out' of equilibrium. According to Setteri eld, the very fact
of the economic system in question (an industry, say) being in a state of 'temporary
Lock-in to one of a
number of possible
multiple equilibria
(steady states)
Development
of
technology
or
industry
Decline of path
External
'shock'
Time
Figure 3
.
2
The David-type model of path-dependent evolution
