Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
1
An Overview of Poultry Models
C. Fisher*
EFG Software, Hebden Bridge, UK
Abstract
This overview is concerned with the representation of poultry production systems or their component
subsystems in theoretical or numerical terms. Many examples are available of such modelling approaches to
problem solving in poultry science. However, the most widely used 'model' is still the use of a small group
(or pen) of birds in a replicated empirical trial. The relationship between modelling and experimentation in
solving practical problems in poultry production is a background theme in this review of poultry models.
Three main approaches to modelling poultry systems have been used, although these are not mu-
tually exclusive and frequently overlap in many ways. They are: (i) the use of mechanistic simulation
of some parts of the production system; (ii) methods to extend the value of empirical experiments by
statistical or other numerical methods; and (iii) the use of real-time control systems. In addition to
these there are a few cases where a theoretical model has been used to extend understanding of basic
biological mechanisms and thereby form the basis for further hypothesis testing. Finally, there is an
important range of quantitative methods that are applied directly in the management of poultry pro-
duction. All of these are important and they should not be seen as being in competition with each
other. All can be used in different circumstances and all can have practical usefulness.
Recent developments in poultry modelling will be reviewed within this framework giving em-
phasis to the following points:
1.
Identification of the main problems that need to be solved in developing mechanistic simulation
models.
2.
Making better use of experimental data by statistical modelling.
3.
The encouragement of systems methods and modelling in poultry science. Implications for publication and
sharing of results, for standardized experimental methods and for commercial application.
Because of the background of the author, the emphasis is on nutritional systems and nutrition
research.
Introduction
the real world. For example it might be a
picture, an analogue model or a mathemat-
ical equation. The most widely used model
in applied poultry science is undoubtedly
In its widest sense the term 'model' may be
used to describe any means of representing
