Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
The identification of pathways was based on the co-construction of ideal future visions
for the region (i.e. in 2030) concerning agriculture and other land-based activities. These
visions correspond to scenarios, as conceptualized in the literature (Ramos, 2010).
However, although the relevant literature uses the term 'scenarios', this process adopted the
goal of 'visioning' in order to encourage creative and unrestricted discussion and support
the creation of 'wishable futures' by the participants, rather than prediction or forecasting.
These visions were not created by the research team and presented to participants for
discussion and improvement; they resulted instead from co-construction. The intention
behind this process was grounded in the conceptualization of system innovation and
transition processes, where social learning is a process of reframing and leads to a change
in perspective among stakeholders, who jointly seek a shared view of problems and
directions for sustainable solutions (Kemp and Loorbach, 2006).
'Imagining the future' has been used as a way to make it easier for those involved to
conceptualize the radical changes which could result from a transition process towards
greater sustainability.
Scenarios can be considered as tools for ordering perceptions about
alternative futures (Ramos, 2010). They are usually best utilized through comparisons of
different possible futures. Scenario-based approaches are particularly useful when
addressing the considerable uncertainty about future trajectories in complex systems - here,
uncertainty may arise from a system's complexity itself, or may be related to determining
future developments (Zurek and Henrichs, 2007). They have shown to be relevant tools for
improving communication amongst stakeholders, planners and decision-makers to
encourage stakeholders to reflect on the future and, in this way, contribute to rural planning
and sustainable governance (Tress and Tress, 2003; Carvalho-Ribeiro
et al.
, 2010; Southern
et al.
, 2011). When significant questions exist on how driving forces may play out in the
longer-term future, scenarios help to explore the implications of a range of different futures.
They make it possible to reduce complexity, either by looking only at part of a system, or
by focusing on a concrete focal question in the scenario process.
In this research, we identify visions as the simplest form of scenarios: stories about the
future which can be told either qualitatively (in words or pictures), quantitatively (as
numerical estimates) or by combining both (Zurek and Henrichs, 2007). Scenarios bring
together different elements of complex systems and combine them to develop images of the
future. Through well-structured participatory processes, it is possible to jointly construct
'visions' which are enriched by the perspectives of different participants. This approach
leads to greater awareness of the drivers in place, and also of the possible roles of different
actors and institutions (Wiek and Iwaniec, 2013).
Methods
In order to ensure consistent implementation across the seven study countries, a step-by-
step approach was developed (Fig. 12.1), based on participatory methodologies including
individual evaluation of each step by participants. There is no pre-defined recipe for the
implementation of transdisciplinary research (Brandt
et al.
, 2013). In this case, the
approach was constructed for this project in particular, and adapted as it evolved, in order to
achieve the best possible integration of participants and concerns, as well as to achieve the
project's overarching goals. As explained in the introduction to this chapter, the selected
regions were also locations of at least one of the transition case studies: Aberdeenshire
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