Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 3.5 Projected change rates of GDP (%) and population (POP, %) in China, 2011-2100
Scenarios 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050 2051-2075 2076-2100
GDP BAU 7.90 7.00 6.60 5.90 5.60 5.50 3.90 2.40
REG 8.30 7.35 6.93 6.20 5.88 5.78 4.10 2.52
CES 7.51 6.65 6.27 5.61 5.32 5.23 3.71 2.28
POP BAU 6.24 4.10 1.67 -0.14 -1.04 -3.99 -5.54 -5.12
REG 6.55 4.30 1.75 -0.13 -0.99 -3.79 -5.26 -4.87
CES 5.93 3.89 1.59 -0.15 -1.10 -4.19 -5.82 -5.38
Note The data come from researches by Deng et al. (
2008
), Lutz and Samir (
2010
), and Samir et al. (
2010
). The change rates of GDP are expanded to 2100
according to historical changing trend. Under the CES scenario, the rates of population growth rate and GDP increase are 5 % lower than that under the BAU
scenario, while they are 5 % higher under the REG scenario than the BAU scenario
