Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
3.1.6 Concluding Remarks on the Tendency of Land Use
Changes in China
In this study, three scenario, i.e. BAU scenario, REG scenario and CES scenario
are designed. We use the GCAM model to simulate land use change from 2015 to
2095 and estimate the impact of land use change on CO
2
emissions that drove by
social economy factors, then find which kind of land use change can adapt to
climate change. The main conclusions are presented as follows.
BAU scenario kept the development trend in the past decades, and there is still
a relatively high speed of economic development. However, it needs time to digest
and absorb the great achievements brought by rapid economic development in the
coming period in order to make all the aspects adapt to the development
requirement, such as the promotion of environmental protection technology, the
rationalization of emission standard, and the further narrowing of urban and rural
gaps. When the whole society adapts to the economic development achievements,
the bubble economy cannot be formed and the future economy will show more
steady improvement. Simulation results indicate that CO
2
emissions will be at an
extreme high level for a long time in China under BAU scenario. Government
should take the appropriate measures or polies at different stages to meet the real
requirements of social-economic development. Therefore, baseline scenario is not
suitable for controlling future CO
2
emission.
Under REG scenario, the rapid growth of GDP and population brings about the
increasing pressure on environment. The adjustment of industrial structure espe-
cially the rising proportion of secondary industry will lead to the growing of
energy consumption and demand. For example, the total amount of exploitation
and import of oil, natural gas and coal is obviously increasing. Besides, the rapid
urbanization will consume more energy and resources. According to the simulation
results of this scenario, CO
2
emissions will rise sharply and stay at an extreme high
level, and it will not meet the sustainable development and low-carbon economic
development model. Moreover, this scenario will lead to serious environmental
crisis. Therefore, it is undesirable.
CES scenario focuses on the purpose of environment protection, and controls
the growth rate of GDP and population. The setting for urbanization level is
consistent with the one under BAU scenario in order to avoid further pressure on
environment. The adjustment of industrial structure is to vigorously develop the
tertiary industry reduce the proportion of the first industry, and control the
development of the secondary industry. Under this scenario, the industrial struc-
ture optimization can be sped up, and CO
2
emission can be effectively controlled.
Therefore, this scenario is more suitable for China.
This study is closely related with socio-economic factors and climate change
through taking land use change as the core influencing factor of climate change
and the socioeconomic development as the driving force, and the results of this
study are of great practical significance and far-reaching research value. However,
there are still some shortcomings in this study. Firstly, there are various factors of
