Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 3.2
The growth rate (%) of economic factors under the REG scenario in 2008-2100
2008-
2010
2011-
2015
2016-
2020
2021-
2025
2026-
2030
2031-
2040
2041-
2050
2051-
2075
2076-
2100
GDP growth
8.7
8.4
7.2
6.6
5.8
5.7
5.6
4.9
4.3
Labor growth
0.4
0.5
0
0
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
-1.2
Capital growth
12.6
9.2
7.5
6.8
5.5
4.6
3.9
2.9
2.1
TFP growth
0.9
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
1.9
1.8
Table 3.3
The growth rate (%) of economic factors under the CES scenario in 2008-2100
2008-
2010
2011-
2015
2016-
2020
2021-
2025
2026-
2030
2031-
2040
2041-
2050
2051-
2075
2076-
2100
GDP growth
8.7
7.0
5.7
5.1
4.3
3.5
2.8
2.6
2.3
Labor growth
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.8
Capital growth
12.6
9.2
6.9
6.1
4.9
4.2
3.4
2.5
1.8
TFP growth
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
Control Scenario Two: CES Scenario
CES scenario mainly considers the following aspects of changes: (i) Slow
urbanization. Slow urbanization restricts not only the smooth and effective
immigration of labor force, but also the upgrading of consumption structure and
industrial structure optimization. (ii) Slow recovery of world economy, serious
trade protection and slow export growth. Exports are the significant motive force
of economic growth, and the annual growth rate of China's exports has been over
20 % since 2000. The proportion of exports to GDP has also gradually increased
from about 23.3 % in 2000 to 36.9 % in 2008, with an increase of 13.6 % during
8 years. In the situation of slow economic growth, industrial structure adjustment
and optimization will also be difficult. (iii) Higher international energy prices and
restricted energy imports. In recent years, with the rapid economic development,
the dependence on some kinds of resources especially crude oil and iron ore was
also rising. In 2007, China produced 186 million tons of crude oil and imported
211 million tons, obviously, the imports have exceeded domestic production. Once
the international energy and resource prices rise, energy imports are restricted,
which will be a greater constraint to economic development. (iv) Slow progress in
system reform and slow technological innovation and efficiency improvement.
Low innovation ratio may cause slow efficiency improvement, and result in slow
conversion of development patterns and slow growth rate. Under this scenario, the
TFP value is lower than that under BAU scenario by 0.4 % (Table
3.3
).
