Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 3.1
The growth rate (%) of economic factors under BAU scenario in 2008-2100
2008-
2010
2011-
2015
2016-
2020
2021-
2025
2026-
2030
2031-
2040
2041-
2050
2051-
2075
2076-
2100
GDP growth
8.7
7.9
7.0
6.6
5.9
5.6
5.5
4.6
3.9
Labor growth
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.9
Capital growth
12.6
9.4
8.4
7.8
6.7
6.2
5.9
5.4
4.8
TFP growth
0.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
consumption from 60 % in 1990 (excluding biomass 76.2 %) declined to 47.7 %
in 2050 (51.9 %), while oil and gas from 14.8 % (18.7 %) increased to 26.3 %
(28.6 %). Primary energy supply capacity would increase from 1,302 Mtce in
1990
to
2,980-3,740 Mtce
in
2050,
which
coal
2,500-2,700 Mtce,
crude
100-200 Mt, natural gas 120 billion cubic meters to 1,400 cubic meters.
Under BAU scenario, urbanization and industrialization will continue to be
pushed forward, the level of urbanization will increase 0.35-0.55 % per year, and
it will be expected to be 52 % in 2015, 65 % in 2030, and up to around 70 % in
2050. Taking into account of the international economic environment and changes
of comparative advantage in China, export growth rate will gradually reduce under
this scenario. Trade surplus will continue to exist in a long time with a gradually
declining trend, and the balance between import and export will be achieved by
2050 and rise steadily during 2050-2100 (Table
3.1
).
Control Scenario One: REG Scenario
Under REG scenario, reforms will be putted forward quickly and smoothly, the role
of market in the allocation of resources will be enhanced obviously, structural
adjustment will be vigorously promoted, and the economic growth pattern will
make rapid progress. The specific settings are as follows: (i) price of all kinds of
resources will be straightened out, there will be a more rational allocation for
resources, and resource use efficiency will be improved. The external cost of eco-
nomic activities will be internalized by the means of taxation and energy. (ii) Public
expenditure structure of government will be adjusted and the proportion of the
expenditure on education, medicine, scientific research and social welfare will be
increased. Many studies have found that the low proportion of government spending
on public services is one of the significant reasons to a lower consumer will.
Therefore, adjusting the structure of government expenditure is helpful to promote
the coordinated development of consumption and investment. (iii) Barriers of labor
force immigration are eliminated, and the process of urbanization is accelerated.
Urbanization is the significant drivers to promote the optimal allocation of
resources, economic growth and industrial structure adjustment. (iv) Development
of support service is intensified and industrial structure is further upgraded. In this
model, the accelerated development of services is reflected by the higher TFP
growth and lower tax levels (Table
3.2
).
